2 elections in 2025 could be tricky for party organizers in northeastern Ontario

This could be a double election year for voters in northeastern Ontario, with a federal vote set for sometime in 2025 and wide speculation that a provincial election will be called about a year ahead of schedule. 

"It seems the chances are approaching 100 per cent," Eric Grenier, the polling analyst behind Thewrit.ca, said of the prospective provincial election.

One of the main driving forces behind that is a long-standing pattern where Ontario voters tend to not want the same party in power provincially and federally. 

"It is pretty solid. It's more or less eight out of 10 times," said Grenier. 

"So it is an actual historical kind of fact that there's a tendency for Ontarians to split their ticket."

And with federal opposition leaders, as well as dozens of Liberal MPs, calling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, it is increasingly possible that a federal campaign could come early in the year, around the same time a provincial vote is expected.

"They're never going to happen at the same time," said Fred Slade, a long-time Conservative organizer in Sudbury. 

"I can't imagine that anyways."

Slade, who ran twice for the Tories federally and is the current provincial riding association president for Nickel Belt, says with both blue parties well ahead in the polls, this is a golden opportunity for conservatives in the north, who often find themselves in third behind the Liberals and NDP. 

"Timing is everything in politics," he said. 

"I've seen polling that says northern Ontario is going very well."

The polling is not looking good for the federal Liberals, who are hoping to hold onto to their four seats in the northeast.

Janet Gasparini, the chair of the federal Liberal riding association in Sudbury, says she's seen provincial and municipal elections held very close together in the past. 

"And whoever comes second seems to have a lot more trouble getting the vote out," she said.

"That makes life very difficult for people."

Gasparini hopes that with the federal Conservatives primed to form government, that "progressive" voters in the northeast will pick and choose whether its best to vote Liberal or NDP in their riding and that organizers like her need to focus on getting the vote out. 

"Sometimes when people are feeling miserable and cranky, then their response is to just stay home," she said. 

"So a lot of our work is going to be making sure we know who our voters are and get them out on voting day."

Maureen Balsillie is the Ontario Green Party campaign manager for Parry Sound-Muskoka, where Matt Richter will run for MPP for a sixth time, after coming within 2,000 votes of Conservative Gradyon Smith in 2022.

She agrees that "volunteer-donor enthusiasm is definitely a concern" with two elections in a year, but expects there will be plenty of space between the two campaigns. 

"I think Ontario is just too important to several of the federal parties to risk running it too close," said Balsillie.

"We are 100 per cent expecting a provincial election. We actually expect it be as soon as January."

After 32 years as a New Democrat MPP, which ended with a loss to Conservative George Pirie in 2022, Gilles Bisson is now working behind the scenes for the party, serving as Timmins riding association president, as well as sitting on the party's provincial election planning committee.

"I think we're in the game," he said, predicting the NDP can hold on to its four northeast ridings and maybe pick up some others, especially if voters recall some of Premier Ford's moves that left them "scratching their heads."

"Those things are the things that are going to come back to bite him in the election. And if he calls an early election, I think that's going to play into it as well... and it's going to come down to how the central campaigns go."

Grenier says when a government decides to go to the polls early, sometimes it becomes a top election issue and "sometimes it doesn't."

"Especially when it's been telegraphed as early as much as it has been, I think a lot of voters will just have it baked in that the campaign is going to happen early," he said. 

"We haven't seen any impact on the polls, so it suggests it might not have any blowback."

Grenier says whenever the elections are called, northern Ontario will be getting a lot more attention from the central campaigns both provincially and federally.

"I wouldn't be surprised if provincially the map looks nearly identical after the voting is over, but the federal map looks a lot bluer than it does right now," he said.

The local campaigns in the north have a lot of work to do, especially if the elections are called early in the year, with lots of blank spots on the ballots still to be filled.

Federal election candidates so far: 

• Sudbury: Liberal Viviane Lapointe (incumbent), Conservative Ian Symington, NDP Nadia Verrelli
• Sudbury East-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt: Liberal Marc Serré (incumbent), NDP Andréane Chénier 
• Nipissing-Timiskaming: Conservative Cassidy Villeneuve
• Kapuskasing-Timmins-Mushkegowuk: NDP Nicole Fortier Levesque, Conservative Gaetan Malette
• Sault Ste. Marie-Algoma: Liberal Terry Sheehan (incumbent)
• Parry Sound-Muskoka: Conservative Scott Aitchison (incumbent)

Provincial election candidates so far:

• Sudbury: NDP Jamie West (incumbent)
• Nickel Belt: NDP France Gelinas (incumbent)
• Nipissing: PC Vic Fedeli (incumbent)
• Timiskaming-Cochrane: NDP John Vanthof (incumbent), Conservative Tory Delaurier
• Timmins: PC George Pirie (incumbent).
• Mushkegowuk-James Bay: NDP Guy Bourgouin (incumbent).
• Sault Ste. Marie: 
• Algoma-Manitoulin: Independent Michael Mantha (incumbent), Liberal Reg Niganobe
• Parry Sound-Muskoka: PC Graydon Smith (incumbent), Green Matt Richter