Federal party leaders turn attention to Northern Ontario ahead of upcoming election

Several places in Northern Ontario have been receiving quite a bit of attention from federal party leaders recently.

This week, New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh made stops in Timmins, Cochrane and Kirkland Lake. Next week, Conservative party leader Pierre Pollievre will be touring Northeastern Ontario on his "Common Sense Rally." He will be planning to stop in Wawa, Hearst, Kirkland Lake and Elliot Lake. 

Some political analysts have taken notice, including Eric Grenier. He writes a weekly newsletter called The Writ, which delves into Canadian polls, elections and politics. 

He told CBC Radio's Morning North that Northern Ontario has become an important battleground in the upcoming federal election. He says Singh and Poilievre are campaigning to hopefully lock down some of the seats that might be winnable.

"You're looking at the two Sudbury ridings where if the Liberals drop enough and if he Conservatives increase enough that they might be in the running, and even in the two Thunder Bay ridings, there could be some gains for the Conservatives.

He also points to two other ridings that may change colours.

He says Sault Ste. Marie and Nipissing-Timiskaming are ridings where Poilievre's party might now be favoured even though the Liberals won them during the 2021 federal election.  

Grenier points out that the Liberal party is being forced to play defence in ridings where they now have MPs. 

As well, a longtime NDP stronghold in the region is up for grabs, as veteran incumbent, Charlie Angus, is not running in the next election.

Significant drops in Liberal advantage

While Northern Ontario doesn't see much polling, federal polling has shown the Conservatives gaining a significant amount of support in Ontario as a whole.

"It's almost inevitable that some of the trends we're seeing in the province are also taking place in northern Ontario,"Grenier says. "The gains for the Conservatives have just been so significant in the province and the drop for the Liberals has [also] been so significant."

He says according to recent polling numbers, the Conservatives are up 10 to 15 points in the province. 

Breaking down the polls

Some ridings in Northern Ontario that will be up for re-election, Grenier says, might also be easy to win due to the nature of a three-way race. He says the Conservatives can win in ridings the party hasn't held in a long time.

"When you have a three-way race, you don't need to have a lot of support to win a riding. You can win with 35 per cent of the vote," he says.

As for Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party, Grenier says there doesn't seem to be much urgency to campaign, even though he's fallen behind by 20 points in the polls.

"I think a lot of the focus over the summer will be on Justin Trudeau's leadership — with what just happened in the United States and with Joe Biden not running again. There is a discussion that maybe it's time for a change for the Liberals as well. But we'll see."