What are Justin Trudeau's options in wake of Chrystia Freeland's resignation?
Some Liberal MPs are calling on Trudeau to step down and let someone else lead the Liberals into next election
Chrystia Freeland's resignation from cabinet on Monday has encouraged some Liberal MPs to double down on their efforts to push Prime Minister Justin Trudeau out of the top job.
Trudeau faced frustrated MPs at a hastily arranged caucus meeting on Monday night. One MP who was in the room told CBC News that most of the 15 MPs who spoke at the meeting said Trudeau has to step down after mismanaging his once-crucial relationship with Freeland.
A number of other MPs have now publicly called on the prime minister to step aside and let someone else lead the Liberals into the next election.
"The prime minister, as I understand it … will reflect on both the decision that minister Freeland made, but also what he's heard from members of his own caucus," Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said Tuesday.
"I think we all need to give him a little time to reflect, and I respect that fact that he's going to take some time to reflect."
The House of Commons started its holiday break on Tuesday and isn't scheduled to return until the end of January — giving Trudeau some time to consider his options.
Here are a few ways Trudeau could decide to proceed in the coming weeks.
He decides to resign
If Trudeau decides he is ready to step down, the Liberal Party would need to choose a new leader — and prime minister. Party leadership races have brought new prime ministers to office several times in the past, including Pierre Trudeau in 1968, John Turner in 1984, Kim Campbell in 1993 and Paul Martin in 2003.
Parliament could carry on as normal while the Liberal Party conducted a new leadership race. But since the Liberals don't have a majority of seats in the House of Commons, they would run the risk of being toppled in a non-confidence vote before a new leader is chosen.
As a result, it might be safer for Trudeau to ask the governor general to prorogue Parliament until a new prime minister is ready to govern.
Prorogation works as a sort of parliamentary pause button. For as long as Parliament is prorogued, neither the House nor the Senate meet or conduct business. The legislative slate is wiped clear, killing all bills that haven't received royal assent, and a new session begins when Parliament returns.
He decides he's staying on
If Trudeau decides to stay as prime minister, he'll still have to manage an increasingly disgruntled Liberal caucus and a House of Commons that might be primed to defeat his government.
He might be able to appease some MPs by offering them cabinet positions. Trudeau was expected to shuffle his cabinet at some point in the coming weeks to replace a number of ministers who have decided they won't be seeking re-election. That long-rumoured shuffle — which also triggered Freeland's exit — likely would still have to happen if Trudeau decides he's staying at the helm.
With the House now adjourned, an immediate election can only be triggered by Trudeau himself asking the governor general to dissolve Parliament. By law, federal campaigns must be at least 37 days, so even if an election were triggered today, the result wouldn't be decided until after Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20.
The House is scheduled to reconvene on Jan. 27, so the first opportunity for opposition parties to defeat the government would come sometime after that. But the Conservative and Bloc Quebecois parties — which have been calling for an election in the wake of Freeland's resignation — don't have enough votes on their own to bring down the government.
To topple the government, the NDP would either have to vote with the Conservatives and Bloc or abstain from a confidence vote.
New Democrats have been calling on Trudeau to resign since Freeland quit cabinet. But the NDP appears to be more willing than the other opposition parties to give the prime minister a bit more time to consider his future.
NDP House leader Peter Julian told CBC News Network's Power & Politics on Monday that if Trudeau hasn't stepped down by February or March, the NDP will vote against the Liberals on a non-confidence motion.
"If we have the continued debacle that we're seeing here and the prime minister has not stepped down … yes, [we would vote no confidence]," he told host David Cochrane.
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With files from The Canadian Press