Ontario PCs hold fundraising advantage ahead of possible vote

Ontario's Progressive Conservatives have a substantial cash advantage over their opponents after raising millions in 2024, as rumours of a snap election persist at Queen's Park.

Doug Ford's PCs raised $10.6 million in 2024, according to real-time figures from Elections Ontario, significantly out-pacing the Liberals, NDP and Green Party.

Experts say that cash could be used to finance a continued advertising blitz in the days leading up to, and during, a possible election campaign, which Ford has refused to rule out in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats.

"We're already seeing a lot of ads on TV," said conservative strategist Dan Mader, a founder of Loyalist Public Affairs, adding that an online and social media campaign will also be important.

"I think people are used to seeing the premier's face if they're watching playoff football," Mader said. "Those ads cost money, and there will be a lot more of those from all the parties once the election is called."

The Ontario Liberal Party came a distant second to the Tories in terms of 2024 advertising. Elections Ontario data shows they raised just under $2.5 million last year. Those numbers could be higher because the arm's length agency says parties are not required to report every donation under $200, though many do. The Liberals said in a press release last week that they raised $5.4 million last year from more than 11,200 donors. 

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Cash will be spent on advertising blitz: experts

The NDP raised $2.3 million last year, according to the Elections Ontario figures, but the party says it raised $5.3 million in 2024 overall, which includes donations to ridings which it says are not captured by the agency data. 

The Elections Ontario figures show the Green Party raised $1.2 million last year, but the party itself says it raised $2 million when contributions not tracked by the agency are added to the total.

Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy said the fundraising gap between the government and opposition parties isn't unusual. But it does mean the Liberals, NDP and Greens are at a disadvantage when it comes to getting their message out, he said.

"You can't just run a clever ad a few times, you have to run it over and over and over again," said Milloy, who is now the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College. 

"You have to go where the people are, which may mean a Stanley Cup playoff game, it may mean a major sporting event — those ads are astronomically expensive."

NDP strategist Mélanie Richer said the fundraising advantage plays out most dramatically in the lead up to the election. The party with the most cash can spend aggressively to frame themselves and their opponents, she said.

"If you have a bigger war chest … that idea that people have of you is pretty cemented by election time," said Richer, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies and former communications director for federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Tories also lead the way with per-vote subsidy

The parties also have Ontario's taxpayer-funded allowance to lean on, created in 2017 after the then Liberal government imposed a ban on corporate and union donations. The funding is allocated at a rate of approximately 63 cents per-vote every three months, based on the results of the 2022 election.

The PCs again have a substantial lead because they won the largest share of support in that vote. In 2024, the Tories were paid $4.9 million, the Liberals received $2.9 million, the NDP received $2.8 million and the Greens $712,000.

The subsidy was extended to 2026 with all-party agreement late last year. It was to have ended at the close of 2024.

That funding, taken together with the fundraising figures, gives the Tories a significant cash advantage. But so too does the position of being in government, Richer said.

"When you're premier or when you're a minister, you have that platform of credibility," Richer said. "You're making announcements, you have the mechanisms of government to really rely on, to talk to folks."

Milloy said aside from advertising, that funding will be used to cover the cost of travel during an election, materials like signs and the increasing cost of temporary campaign office space.

"In this day and age, it's not just vacancies for housing that are very tight," he said.

"It's vacancies often for that prime real estate that you can get on a short term basis. It sounds very, very in the weeds, but I've got to tell you, it's a real issue."