Political panel debates how turmoil in Ottawa could impact an early election call in Ontario

A federal election in the coming months seems increasingly certain. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is weighing his own political future after the abrupt resignation of his top cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland in December, while the Conservatives and NDP have made clear they intend to vote to bring down the Liberal government, possibly as early as the end of this month.

What remains uncertain is exactly how and when a federal election might play out, and that could have significant consequences for the provincial political landscape here in Ontario. 

Throughout the latter half of 2024, Premier Doug Ford sent repeated signals that he may send Ontario voters to the polls this spring, more than a year ahead of the next fixed election date. His possible reasons for doing so with a majority government depend a lot on who you ask, but there's little doubt the turmoil in Ottawa will impact his thought process.

After all, those signals were sent when Ford and his aides assumed a federal vote would most likely not come until the fall. They similarly came before U.S. president-elect Donald Trump promised to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods, a policy that economists say represents a potentially existential threat to Ontario's economy. 

So, what does it all mean for the prospect of an early election in Ontario? CBC Radio's Metro Morning turned to its panel of political strategists to help make sense of it all, and to debate how the many moving parts could influence Ford's thinking in the coming weeks.

The panel included:

• Jeff Rutledge, Tory strategist and vice president at the public affairs firm McMillan Vantage.
• Ashley Csanady, Liberal strategist and vice president at McMillan Vantage.
• Marina Nader, co-CEO of Nexus Strategy Group and former staffer for the Ontario and federal New Democrats.

You can watch the lively discussion in the video player above.