Trump promises trade 'overhaul,' but no tariffs yet on Canadian goods
President to direct U.S. agencies to study trade deficits — but tariffs avoided on Day 1
U.S. President Donald Trump will not impose his promised tariffs on Canada, Mexico or China on his first day in office, according to multiple U.S. reports, giving this country something of a reprieve, at least for now.
Trump, who was sworn in as president just after noon on Monday, has been reviewing three options: a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, a 10 per cent tariff on goods from all countries or an escalating tariff that starts low and rises over time, according to Canadian officials.
A Trump administration official confirmed to Reuters that the president will hold off for now and instead direct agencies in a memo to "investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits and address unfair trade and currency policies by other nations."
The memo will single out China, Canada and Mexico for scrutiny but will not announce new tariffs, the official said.
The Wall Street Journal was first to report Trump will stop short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office, as Canada and other countries potentially caught in the crosshairs had feared.
Trump made only a passing reference to tariffs in his inaugural address. He said he will "begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families," and pursue tariffs to "enrich our citizens" as part of a larger plan to usher in "a golden age of America."
A 25 per cent tariff would be particularly devastating to Canada. Experts have said just a 10 per cent levy would shave billions of dollars of the GDP and potentially plunge the country into a painful recession requiring government stimulus to prop up the economy.
Canada is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. if Trump eventually moves ahead with any trade action. Officials have already drawn up a plan that will levy immediate tariffs on $37-billion worth of American goods if Trump moves against Canada.
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc sounded a cautiously optimistic tone after reports that Trump doesn't have tariffs on his day one agenda.
"Perhaps he's made the decision to sort of suspend the threat of tariffs, we'll wait and see," LeBlanc said. "Our job is to make sure we're ready for every scenario."
LeBlanc said he will soon travel to Washington to meet with Howard Lutnick, Trump's incoming commerce secretary. He said he will continue to stress to Lutnick that any tariffs on Canada will have negative knock-on effects in the U.S., fuelling inflation and disrupting supply chains.
"It's not in America's interest," he said. "We think there's a strong case to be made."
Two senior government officials told Radio-Canada that it's "good news" Canada will be spared tariffs today. But the sources stressed that the government remains very cautious due to the uncertainty of what could come in the days to follow.
A team in the Prime Minister's Office will be poring over Trump's executive orders to see what, if any, effect they will have on Canada, the sources said.
Kirsten Hillman, Canada's ambassador to the U.S., has been furiously lobbying Trump officials for months to drop the tariff plan.
"I woke up this morning thinking, honestly, we really don't know what's going to happen and nobody is giving us any assurances," Hillman said.
"But I feel better now than I felt then. And I will feel even better when we see the details of what he's asking for in terms of a study," she said, referring to Trump's call for a review of unfair trade practices.
Ford worries Ontario will be targeted
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, meanwhile, said he was not reassured by Trump's decision to hold off on tariffs.
"These tariffs are coming," he said. "Today just adds more uncertainty. I feel like he's going to be targeting Canada, specifically Ontario. Make no mistake, he's coming for us. I think it's a lot worse than it was yesterday."
Ford suggested he could call an election sometime soon to get a new mandate from voters to handle the tariff threat and the possible fallout.
While Trump could reverse course and impose the threatened tariffs at any time, the decision to initially focus on other priorities — like cracking down on migrants and clearing the way for more oil and gas drilling — is still something of a victory for Canada because he had promised trade action on day one, shortly after winning the U.S. presidential election in November.
In one of his last campaign stump speeches before election day, Trump again pitched punishing tariffs as a way to force Canada and Mexico to act on drugs and migrants coming into the U.S.
"We're going to give them a little period of time, but we don't want drugs coming across our border or any border, whether it's Mexico or Canada or wherever because they're starting now in Canada, they're starting to go up north," he told the crowd in Grand Rapids, Mich.
"We're gonna explain to them quickly that if you allow fentanyl and these drugs to come through your country — we're going to charge you large-scale tariffs on everything you send to the U.S."
Ottawa has shown a willingness to engage with Trump on the issue, announcing a $1.3-billion border package that will result in more personnel and technology to better police the 49th parallel.
Canada also has the data on its side. Figures from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show the agency seized just 19.5 kilograms of fentanyl at the northern border last year compared to a whopping 9,570 kilograms at the southwestern one.
As for illegal migrants, there's a huge disparity between Canada and Mexico.
LeBlanc said Canada has "convinced" the incoming administration that the government here "completely shares their views in terms of fighting against illegal fentanyl, fighting against organized crime at the border."
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said Canada "did the work on the border. It's all about the border."
She said Trump's border czar, Tom Homan, gave her and other officials "some good feedback" over the weekend about the billion-dollar plan — and that might help Canada keep Trump at bay.
While leaving tariffs for another day, Trump is, however, expected to issue an executive order Monday directing agencies to assess the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), according to a report in the New York Times.
Trump has long griped about Canada's system of supply management for certain farm sectors like dairy, eggs and poultry — a system he tried and failed to kill when negotiating the first iteration of CUSMA. That trilateral trade agreement is up for review in 2026 and supply management could be a flashpoint in those talks.
A separate executive order signals Trump hasn't dropped his affinity for tariffs — he will order the federal government to assess the feasibility of creating an "external revenue service" that could be charged with collecting tariffs and duties in the future.
Alberta's Smith wants to drop talk about retaliatory tariffs
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who is in Washington for inauguration-related events, said she was "pleased" to see the president back off the tariffs threat — at least for now.
"He's given Canada a reprieve and we'll see how long that lasts," Smith said in an interview with CBC News.
Like her federal counterparts, Smith said the fight isn't over.
Smith offered a solution to the tariff woes, advice she said was crafted after meeting with "dozens of governors, senators, members of Congress and allies of the incoming administration."
She said the federal government and the premiers should "focus on diplomacy" and drop "further talk of retaliatory measures" like the threat of Canadian tariffs on U.S. goods or cutting off oil supplies.
Smith was offside with the 12 other premiers and Trudeau last week when she refused to sign on to a plan to take on Trump with possible Canadian countermeasures.
The other premiers and the prime minister agreed to use "every tool in the toolbox," including a possible energy export ban as a last resort, to hit back at Trump if he moved ahead with tariffs.
Smith said Monday she was "hurt" that the other premiers signed on to a plan that could result in Alberta's largest export being used as leverage.
But the plan drawn up by Ottawa and the premiers called for shared sacrifices and didn't single out Alberta oil alone. There was an agreement that no one region or sector would bear the brunt from whatever happens.
To stay in Trump's good graces, Smith said Ottawa should broker a deal with the new president to buy more American goods, double down on new border security measures, dial back immigration levels to what they were in the pre-Trudeau era, crack down on "loopholes" that let "hostile" people enter Canada and accelerate military spending to hit the two per cent of GDP NATO target sooner.
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With files from Louis Blouin