One scientist says this temp drop could be the dawn of an itty bitty ice age
Complain all you want, it is apparently THAT cold.
Montreal has just survived an all-time record cold streak. Six crisp consecutive days below -17C degrees (underscored by exactly zero long johns in my size at the store earlier this week). Friends in Toronto are no better off. Environment Canada has issued an extreme cold temperature warning to folks in the GTA (the extreme cold criteria is a bracing -30C degrees, so do get to the local long john store today). There was also talk of brave, well-bundled snow zombies in Edmonton. Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have all received similar temp alerts. In case you've been cleverly hibernating since November, it's officially colder in Canada than usual. Anyone who isn't a Yeti should note that this newer, cooler Canada could be here for, wait for it, another two decades. Weep as you see fit, your tears will freeze anyway. No kleenex needed! Bonus.
One scientist thinks we're headed even deeper into the freeze — and she's been talking about it for years. While global warming is a very real concern and thousands of scientists agree that our presence on Earth hasn't been doing terrestrial weather systems any favours, Dr. Valentina Zharkova, an astrophysicist and professor of mathematics at Northumbria University, has been focused on the star of our solar system. Though Zharkova counts herself among those in the climate change camp, she says the sun may very well make things decidedly colder for a spell. In a 2014 study that aimed to predict solar magnetic field cycles, Zharkova and her team posit that we're steadily headed for a "mini ice age" by 2030.
Experts explain that constant, fluid magnetic activity within the sun is believed to dictate 11-year weather cycles here on Earth. But as we move through the next decade, opposing fields in the northern and southern hemispheres of the sun will "effectively cancel each other out" causing solar activity to fall by about 60 per cent. Zharkova's study claims to guarantee "an accuracy better than 98%". If her team's prediction does indeed hold true, the wee ice age we'll endure due to sun activity will last about a decade, taking us into 2040 or so.
Should Zharkova be right, this would be the second time the planet has seen a mini ice age. In the particularly frosty winter of 1683 to 1684, historical records show that the River Thames froze over for nearly two months, making it "passable by foot". There's even a fancy Latin name for the mini ice age caused by low sunspot activity that sent a cold snap across 17th century Europe and North America: The Maunder Minimum (aka prolonged sunspot minimum). Back then the consistently cold winters lasted about 30 years (or 3 sun cycles), from 1645 to 1715. Zharkova and her team think we're on the cusp of another one, or at least something pretty similar. "During the minimum, the intensity of solar radiation will be reduced dramatically. So we will have less heat coming into the atmosphere, which will reduce the temperature," she explains. Now may be a fruitful time to take those snowboarding lessons.
If the idea of much harsher winters leaves you a little worse for wear, take heart that even Zharkova thinks the colder conditions will remain relatively manageable. She avoids making any concrete temperature predictions but maintains it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a shift. "It will be cold, but it will not be this ice age when everything is freezing like in the Hollywood films," she told media.
Ed Hawkins, climate change scientist and professor of meteorology at the University of Reading, echoes that, but warns we shouldn't get distracted by the idea of a "Little Ice Age", a name he takes issue with as evidenced by his exploratory study of the term. Zharkova, too, says this shouldn't allow us to ignore the real threat of global warming. Consider that only Canada and the US have been saddled with bitter climates of late. The rest of the planet remains measurably hotter than usual (0.5 C warmer by the University of Maine Climate Change Institute's analysis). Hawkins concedes that solar activity can cause temperature changes but cautions that global warming remains an issue and we shouldn't trump up cold spells up more than necessary. "Don't expect to be skating on the Thames anytime soon", read a recent Twitter post from Hawkins. So, there's that.
Impending ice age or no, meteorologists advise the colder weather will still linger for a bit. Something which should at least allow us to sharpen our hockey skills.
Marc Beaulieu is a Montreal writer, producer, performer, professional host and mental health advocate whose one true love is weird news.