Turkish presidential election headed for run-off vote after Erdogan just misses outright victory

Turkey's presidential election will be decided in a run-off, election officials said Monday, after incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan pulled ahead of his chief challenger, but fell short of an outright victory that would extend his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade.

The May 28 second-round vote will determine whether the strategically located NATO country remains under the president's firm grip or can embark on a more democratic course promised by his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

While Erdogan has governed for 20 years, opinion polls had suggested that run could be coming to an end and that a cost-of-living crisis and criticism over the government's response to a devastating February earthquake might redraw the electoral map.

Instead, Erdogan's retreat was still less marked than predicted — and with his alliance retaining its hold on the parliament, he is now in a good position to win in the second round.

Western nations and foreign investors were particularly interested in the outcome because of Erdogan's unorthodox leadership of the economy and often mercurial but successful efforts to put Turkey at the centre of many major diplomatic negotiations. At a crossroads between East and West, with a coast along the Black Sea and borders with Iran, Iraq and Syria, Turkey has been a key player on issues including the war in Syria, migration flows to Europe, exports of Ukraine's grain and NATO's expansion.

Preliminary results following Sunday's vote showed Erdogan won 49.51 per cent, Kilicdaroglu grabbed 44.88 per cent and the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.17 per cent, according to Ahmet Yener, the head of the Supreme Electoral Board. With no candidate having secured more than 50 per cent, the vote goes to a runoff.

In the last presidential election in 2018, Erdogan secured 52.6 per cent of the vote in the first round, winning outright.

Erdogan in power since 2003

Even as it became clear a run-off was likely, Erdogan, who has governed Turkey as either prime minister or president since 2003, painted Sunday's vote as a victory both for himself and the country. 

"That the election results have not been finalized doesn't change the fact that the nation has chosen us," Erdogan, 69, told supporters in the early hours of Monday. 

He said he would respect the nation's decision.

Kilicdaroglu sounded hopeful for an eventual victory.

"We will absolutely win the second round … and bring democracy," said Kilicdaroglu, 74, maintaining that Erdogan had lost the trust of a nation now demanding change. Kilicdaroglu and his party have lost all previous presidential and parliamentary elections since he took leadership in 2010 but increased their votes this time. 

Right-wing candidate Ogan has not said whom he would endorse if the elections go to a second round. He is believed to have received support from nationalist electors wanting change after two decades under Erdogan but who were unconvinced by the Kilicdaroglu-led six party alliance's ability to govern.

The election results showed that the alliance led by Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party looked like it would keep its majority in the 600-seat parliament, although the assembly has lost much of its power after a referendum that gave the presidency additional legislative powers narrowly passed in 2017.

Results likely give Erdogan advantage: expert

Erdogan's AKP and its allies secured 321 seats in the National Assembly, while the opposition won 213 and the 66 remaining went to a pro-Kurdish alliance, according to preliminary results.

Howard Eissenstat, an associate professor of Middle East history and politics at St. Lawrence University in New York, said those results would likely give Erdogan an advantage in an eventual run-off because voters would not want a "divided government."

Some voters said the vote shows how polarized Turkey has become.

"I am not happy at all," voter Suzan Devletsah said. "I worry about the future of Turkey."

First-time voter Sena Dayan said she voted in Istanbul for Erdogan and his alliance. She would have preferred an outright victory for Erdogan but argued the runoff would prove to be an important lesson.

"Erdogan is too confident in himself but the people broke this confidence a bit by saying 'yes, sometimes we might not support you,' and I believe this is good for the government to look back on some mistakes and better for our future," she said.

As in previous years, Erdogan led a highly divisive campaign. He portrayed Kilicdaroglu, who had received the backing of the country's pro-Kurdish party, of colluding with "terrorists" and of supporting what he called "deviant" LGBTQ rights. In a bid to woo voters hit hard by inflation, he increased wages and pensions, and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey's homegrown defence industry and infrastructure projects.

Kilicdaroglu, for his part, campaigned on promises to reverse crackdowns on free speech and other forms of democratic backsliding, as well as to repair an economy battered by high inflation and currency devaluation.

But as the results came in, it appeared those elements didn't shake up the electorate as expected: Turkey's conservative heartland overwhelmingly voted for the ruling party, with Kilicdaroglu's main opposition winning most of the coastal provinces in the west and south. The pro-Kurdish Green Left Party, YSP, won the predominantly Kurdish provinces in the southeast.