Turkey's election could be headed for a run-off

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled his country with an increasingly firm grip for 20 years, was locked in a tight election race early Monday, with a make-or-break run-off against his chief challenger possible as the final votes were counted.

The results, whether they come within days or after a second round of voting takes place in two weeks, will determine if a NATO ally that straddles Europe and Asia but borders Syria and Iran remains under Erdogan's control or resumes the more democratic path promised by his main rival, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Speaking to supporters in Ankara, Erdogan, 69, said he could still win but would respect the nation's decision if the race went to a run-off vote.

"We don't yet know if the elections ended in the first round.... If our nation has chosen for a second round, that is also welcome," Erdogan said early Monday, noting that votes from Turkish citizens living abroad still need to be tallied.

He garnered 60 per cent of the overseas vote in 2018. 

With the unofficial count nearly completed, voter support for the incumbent had dipped below the majority required for him to win re-election outright. Erdogan had 49.3 per cent of the vote, while Kilicdaroglu, had 45 per cent, according to the state-run news agency Anadolu.

"We will absolutely win the second round ... and bring democracy" Kilicdaroglu, 74, the candidate of a six-party alliance, said, arguing that Erdogan had lost the trust of a nation now demanding change. 

Majority of overseas ballots still to be counted 

Turkey's election authority, the Supreme Electoral Board, said it was providing numbers to competing political parties "instantly" and would make the results public once the count was completed and finalized. 

The majority of ballots from the 3.4 million eligible overseas voters still needed to be tallied, according to the board, and a May 28 run-off election was not assured. 

Erdogan has governed Turkey as either prime minister or president for two decades. In the run-up to the election, opinion surveys had indicated the increasingly authoritarian leader narrowly trailed his challenger.

The race, which largely centred on domestic issues such as the economy, civil rights and a February earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people, had appeared to be shaping up as the toughest re-election bid of the Turkish leader's 20-year rule.

With the partial results showing otherwise, members of Kilicdaroglu's centre-left, pro-secular Republican People's Party, or CHP, disputed Anadolu's numbers, contending the state-run agency was biased in Erodgan's favour.

Omer Celik, a spokesperson for Erdogan's Justice and Development, or AK, party, in turn accused the opposition of "an attempt to assassinate the national will" by claiming the state news agency was distorting the results. He called the opposition claims "irresponsible."

The election could grant Erdogan another five-year term or see him unseated by Kilicdaroglu, who campaigned on a promise to return Turkey to a more democratic path and to repair an economy battered by high inflation and currency devaluation.

Inflation, earthquake, war in Ukraine figure into the election

Voters also elected lawmakers to fill Turkey's 600-seat parliament, which lost much of its legislative power under Erdogan's executive presidency. If his political alliance wins, Erdogan could continue governing without much restriction. The opposition has promised to return Turkey's governance system to a parliamentary democracy if it wins both the presidential and parliamentary ballots.

More than 64 million people, including 3.4 million overseas voters, were eligible to vote. This year marks 100 years since Turkey's establishment as a republic — a modern, secular state born on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire.

Voter turnout in Turkey is traditionally strong.

Under Erdogan, Turkey has seen the suppression of freedom of expression and assembly. The country is wracked by a cost-of-living crisis that critics blame on the government's mishandling of the economy. The president contends low interest rates tame inflation, and he pressured the central bank to reflect his view.

The latest official statistics put inflation at about 44 per cent, down from around 86 per cent. The price of vegetables became a campaign issue for the opposition, which used an onion as a symbol.

Turkey is also reeling from the effects of a powerful earthquake that caused devastation in 11 southern provinces in February, killing more than 50,000 people in unsafe buildings. Erdogan's government has been criticized for its delayed and stunted response to the disaster, as well as a lax implementation of building codes that exacerbated the casualties and misery.

In contrast with mainstream economic thinking, Erdogan contends that high interest rates fuel inflation, and he pressured the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to lower its main rate multiple times.

Erdogan's government also faced criticism for its allegedly delayed and stunted response to the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that caused devastation in 11 southern provinces.

A lax implementation of building codes is thought to have exacerbated the casualties and misery. In his election campaign, Erdogan used state resources and his domineering position over media to try to woo voters. He accused the opposition of colluding with "terrorists," of being "drunkards" and of upholding LGBTQ+ rights, which he depicts as threatening traditional family values in the predominantly Muslim nation.

In a bid to secure support from citizens hit hard by inflation, Erdogan increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey's homegrown defence and infrastructure projects. Kilicdaroglu's six-party Nation Alliance pledged to dismantle the executive presidency system, to restore the independence of the judiciary and the central bank, and to reverse crackdowns on free speech and other forms of democratic backsliding in Turkey.

"We have all missed democracy so much. We all missed being together," Kilicdaroglu said after voting at a school in Ankara. Also running for president was Sinan Ogan, a former academic who has the backing of an anti-immigrant nationalist party.

At polling stations, many voters struggled to fold bulky ballot papers — featuring 24 political parties competing for seats in parliament — and fit them into envelopes along with the ballot for the presidency.

"It's important for Turkey. It's important for the people," said Necati Aktuna, a voter in Ankara. "I've been voting for the last 60 years. I haven't seen a more important election that this one."