ANALYSIS: Karzai's death leaves Kandahar power vacuum

The assassination of Ahmed Wali Karzai at his home in Kandahar Tuesday morning has rocked Afghanistan.

Not only was he President Hamid Karzai's half-brother, he was also the most powerful person in the troubled southeastern province.

The president "depended on his brother to secure the south and keep it loyal to him and to deliver votes when votes were needed and support when support was needed," Central Asia expert Ahmed Rashid told CBC News during a telephone interview from Lahore, Pakistan.

Rashid is one of the best-known journalists covering the region and the author of several books, including, Taliban: The Power of Militant Islam in Afghanistan and Beyond.

His brother's death comes at a difficult time for President Karzai. He faces a political crisis in parliament, a financial crisis because the IMF has stopped handing over money and a related banking crisis, with allegations of fraud hanging over Afghanistan's two largest private banks. Wali Karzai was a founder of the larger of the two, Kabul Bank.

"With all these problems, Karzai needs to show that he has the support of the Pashtun tribes in the south, and his [brother's] death has now put that into question and doubt," Rashid observed.

Kandahar's power broker

Wali Karzai's power did not originate from his position within the government, as head of the Kandahar Provincial Council, which had limited influence. Rather, it came from his family and tribal connections, and his considerable wealth.

He had owned an Afghan restaurant in Chicago until about 2000, when he moved to Pakistan. After the U.S. overthrow of the Taliban following the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001, Wali Karzai played a crucial role in his brother becoming president, in part thanks to his American connections.

In recent years there have been news stories and U.S. diplomatic cables, courtesy of WikiLeaks, suggesting that Wali Karzai had been getting a massive cut from the opium trade. He had been accused of receiving payments from the CIA, being at the centre of much of the corruption in the province, running his own private militias and dealing with the Taliban.

When U.S. Gen. Stanley McChrystal took charge of the Afghanistan operation in 2009 he tried to get Wali Karzai out of Kandahar. A senior American officer told The New Yorker magazine's Dexter Filkins at the time, "The only way to clean up Chicago is to get rid of Capone."

President Karzai refused the American requests and eventually the Americans stopped pushing.

In his role as a power broker, Wali Karzai would be approached for business or political favours. He was the ultimate fixer. At the moment he was gunned down by Sardar Mohammed, more than 60 people were at the Karzai home. Mohammed, a close family friend, was reported to be a regular visitor.

Impact on the military campaign

Before Wali Karzai's death, "a lot of people referred to him as the most important, significant man in the province," Afghan-Canadian journalist Nelofer Pazira said in a CBC News interview. Pazira, author of A Bed of Red Flowers: In Search of My Afghanistan, was last in her hometown of Kandahar in May.

Pazira reports that foreigners in Afghanistan "were not terribly fond of Wali Karzai." She said that he spoke good English, was charming and chatty, but, for the West, tough to deal with. To many in the region, "he didn't budge under the foreigners' pressure and for that reason some Afghans liked him."

However, Pazira said, many people in Kandahar, especially outside his Popalzai tribe, saw him as corrupt, and "many thought him a very brutal person, although he didn't look it, and so they wanted him dead." Because of that reputation, the NATO forces often saw him as driving support to the Taliban.

CBC correspondent Susan Ormiston called Wali Karzai NATO's "link to the labyrinth of tribal politics in Kandahar." Ormiston interviewed  him in June.

For those in the American military who saw him standing in the way of achieving some of their goals, Pazira observed, "this one roadblock has been removed." She added that for the Americans, "they will have to express their condolences and keep face, but internally I feel there will be sighs of relief."

Rashid argues that Wali Karzai's death leave a huge vacuum in southern Afghanistan for the Americans at a critical time. They are trying to withdraw troops while waging an intense battle with the Taliban amid an extremely complicated political situation in the south.

Filkins argues that, "As long as Ahmed Wali Karzai remained in control, serious change was probably impossible." Writing Tuesday for The New Yorker's website, he adds, "It may not be good form to say that a man's death offers a second chance, but that is exactly what we have in Afghanistan."

Filling the vacuum

Rashid recognizes that Wali Karzai's presence cannot be filled immediately. He expects much squabbling among various tribal chiefs but expects the president to move one of his brothers to Kandahar. "But I don't think that is going to be sufficient."

Another possible successor mentioned by both Rashid and Pazira is Gul Agha Sherzai, a former governor of Kandahar and now the governor of Nangarhar province. Pazira said there are many rivalries in Kandahar between the Karzai and Sherzai families, who are from different Pashtun tribes.

Sherzai does have a base in Kandahar, but the problem for President Karzai, according to Rashid, is that "he may on the surface be an ally of the president but he is very much a rival."

Ormiston said she expects various criminals and warlords will be vying to divvy up the spoils Wali Karzai has left behind.

In Pazira's view, "there are certain individuals who were waiting for this moment to arrive and I am sure they will be very quick in trying to clean up what they will call Wali Karzai's legacy."