The war in Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia — and nothing suggests a change of course in 2023
For both Putin and the U.S., the war has become do-or-die
The holiday season is a time for soul-searching — even in wartime.
In a time that's supposed to be about peace on Earth and good will to all, many Russia-watchers are wondering how much soul-searching will be happening in Moscow over the next few weeks — how much Russia's leaders are willing to contemplate the catastrophe they unleashed upon themselves by launching major hostilities with Ukraine almost a year ago.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent comments suggest he's aware that the war he set in motion will be a long one. But nothing he's said to date indicates a full-blown reset is in the offing in 2023, said Leigh Sarty, a former diplomat and eastern Europe expert, now adjunct professor at Ottawa's Carleton University.
He said it's wise to be skeptical of any claims that Putin and his advisers "are thinking things through and realize how ... badly they've done, and how significantly they're falling short of their initial aspirations."
Sarty said he believes it's in the Russian character to plow through adversity, regardless of the cost, and that "they will hunker down and do whatever it takes to achieve something they can call victory."
That sort of bloody-mindedness was a feature of the war in 2022 and could become a hallmark of the conflict in 2023, said Sarty, who did two stints at Canada's embassy in Moscow.
With its retreats from Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, he said, the Russian military demonstrated tactical awareness.
Since then, the Russians have switched to a strategy of holding the line on the ground while pounding Ukrainian cities and infrastructure from above with a brutal campaign of missile and drone strikes. That "savage" shift, Sarty said, shows Moscow is capable of adapting — but it's still a play from an old playbook, an echo of Russian city-flattening, civilian-slaughtering tactics in Chechnya and Syria.
If anyone is reflecting this season in Moscow on the wisdom of Putin's invasion, it likely will be the Russian government officials, technocrats and business leaders fretting about the damage the war has done to the economy and the political and social fabric of the country.
Sarty said he sees glimmers of awareness of how badly things have gone among Russia's leaders — coupled with cosmetic attempts to address them through political messaging.
The independent Russian news outlet The Moscow Times reported in mid-December that the Kremlin has instructed regional governors to come up with an agenda of "positive" news and events in which Putin can participate.
And on December 17, the Russian president was photographed with the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Defence Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the joint force group operating in Ukraine.
It was an attempt to show Putin and his military leaders standing together, united and resolute, according to analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, which produces a daily summary of significant events in the conflict.
Moscow's overall strategy for a long war would be to drive a wedge between Ukraine and the western countries backing it up with weapons and money.
So far, NATO countries have remained equally resolute and have stayed on the same page. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy's recent trip to Washington to deliver a speech to the U.S. Congress was a major signal of unity and sustained backing.
Matthew Schmidt, an eastern European expert at the University of New Haven, Connecticut, said the political stakes for U.S. President Joe Biden were raised by the trip — because it means the U.S. cannot allow Ukraine to fall.
"America is all-in now and a Ukrainian loss would be devastating to U.S. security now, because the next 30 years of U.S. policy in the region will critically depend on our relationship with Kyiv," Schmidt said.
The big question leaders in allied capitals will be asking themselves this holiday season is whether Europe will remain resolute through the long, cold winter and into 2023 in the face of high inflation, energy market upheaval and disrupted supply chains.
But with Russia's gross domestic product about to shrink by as much as five per cent, the other burning question is who will blink first — the West or Russia.
"That is the six billion dollar question, isn't it?" said Canada's former ambassador to NATO Kerry Buck. The Russian people have a history of withstanding an enormous amount of pain and hardship, which was reinforced by the horrors experienced by ordinary Russians during the Second World War.
But the "special military operation" in Ukraine (as the Kremlin insists on calling it) is not truly a war of national survival. It's a war of choice.
"The problem is, this isn't a concentrated war. It's not an acute threat to Russians," said Buck, arguing a point that was driven home by the sight of hundreds of thousands of draft-age men fleeing the country when limited conscription was announced.
The chairman of Russia's National Security Council, former president Dmitry Medvedev, tried to drive wedges between NATO allies in mid-December by publishing a list of what he described as legitimate military targets — which included "the armed forces of other countries that have officially entered the war" in Ukraine.
Medvedev asked rhetorically whether Western military aid to Ukraine turned donor nations into co-belligerents, making NATO members legitimate military targets.
Retired U.S. Army lieutenant general Ben Hodges said the chances of Russia deliberately dragging NATO into the war remain pretty slim.
"If Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, the last thing that they want is to get into a full-on conflict with the Alliance," he told CBC News.
Despite persistent rumours of a winter offensive — one that may or may not involve Ukraine's northern neighbour Belarus — Hodges said he doesn't see Moscow gaining a clear victory on the ground because of the disjointed way its military has conducted the campaign.
He also doesn't see signs that the Russians have learned anything from the experience.
"I don't think there's been a single day since 24 February where the Russians conducted a joint operation," Hodges said. "The Black Sea fleet, they're doing their own thing. The [Russian] Air Force seems to be doing its thing that's not connected to ground operations.
"Fortunately, they don't appear any closer to fixing that than they were 10 months ago."
Beyond co-ordination, Hodges said he's doubts Russia can put together a large enough force for a winter push, one "with real combat capability, because of the logistics required. They don't have people to train these incoming newly mobilized soldiers."
The Russians are not stupid people, Hodges said, but he remains somewhat mystified by the apparent lack of reflection in Moscow.
"Any serious person would have to be able to see that it has been a catastrophe," he said.
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