Putin in Belarus for talks amid fears of new assault on Ukraine
Russian forces used Belarus as a launch pad for invasion of Ukraine in February
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart and close ally extolled the benefits of co-operation after Putin visited Minsk for the first time since 2019, hardly mentioning the war raging in nearby Ukraine at a joint news conference.
Russian forces used Belarus as a launch pad for their abortive attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in February, and there has been Russian and Belarusian military activity there for months.
But none of the journalists invited to speak asked Putin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko about the war.
They in turn devoted their answers to the ever-closer economic and defence alignment between their two former Soviet states — already formally allied in a somewhat nebulous "union" — and to the excitement of Sunday's World Cup soccer final in Qatar.
Putin's trip was his first to Minsk since 2019 — before the COVID-19 pandemic and a wave of pro-democracy protests in 2020 that Lukashenko crushed with strong support from the Kremlin.
Putin: 'No interest in absorbing' Belarus
Belarus's political opposition, largely driven into jail, exile or silence, fears a creeping Russian annexation or "absorption" of its much smaller Slavic neighbour. Both Putin and Lukashenko were at pains to dismiss the idea.
"Russia has no interest in absorbing anyone," Putin said. "There is simply no expediency in this."
Lukashenko, at one point calling Putin an "older brother," praised Russia as a friend that had "held out its hand to us," providing Belarus with oil and gas at discounted prices.
"Russia can manage without us, but we can't [manage] without Russia," he said.
Belarus' veteran leader said the two countries had agreed on a new price for supplies of Russian gas, but declined to specify what it was before his government had discussed it.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies that Belarus was Russia's "No. 1 ally" but that suggestions Moscow aims to pressure Minsk into joining what it calls its "special military operation" were "stupid and unfounded fabrications."
'Further aggression'
Ukrainian joint forces commander Serhiy Nayev had said he believed the talks would address "further aggression against Ukraine and the broader involvement of the Belarusian armed forces in the operation against Ukraine, in particular, in our opinion, also on the ground."
Ukraine's top general, Valery Zaluzhniy, told The Economist last week that Russia was preparing 200,000 fresh troops for a major offensive that could come from the east, south or even from Belarus as early as January, but more likely in spring.
Moscow and Minsk have set up a joint military unit in Belarus and held numerous exercises. Three Russian warplanes and an airborne early warning and control aircraft were deployed to Belarus last week.
But Lukashenko, a pariah in the West who relies heavily on Moscow for support, has repeatedly said Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine. Foreign diplomats say committing Belarusian troops would be deeply unpopular at home.
Sanctions hit exports
Already, Western sanctions have made it hard for Belarus to ship potash fertilizers, its top export, via Baltic ports.
Western military analysts say Lukashenko's small army lacks the strength and combat experience to make a big difference — but that by forcing Ukraine to commit forces to its north, it could leave it more exposed to Russian assaults elsewhere.
The Pentagon said on Dec. 13 that it did not see "any type of impending cross-border activity by Belarus at this time."
Lukashenko said he and Putin would discuss a long-running effort to integrate their respective former Soviet republics in a supranational Union State. The talks are seen by the Belarus opposition as a vehicle for a creeping Russian annexation.
