What the aborted mutiny in Russia says about Putin's long war strategy in Ukraine
No one expects the war to end soon — but the revolt could have ripple effects far from Ukraine
The phrase "game changer" gets tossed around rather loosely these days.
It's used as a handy catch-all for important events most people weren't expecting and don't understand — events with consequences that are not immediately apparent.
The abortive march of Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin on Moscow over the weekend neatly falls into the category of the unexpected and puzzling. Legions of pundits around the world have been offering conflicting views on what it all means for President Vladimir Putin and the brutal war his regime continues to prosecute in neighbouring Ukraine.
It was interesting and disturbing to watch so many people on social media breathlessly cheering on Prigozhin in the early hours of his revolt — until it was patiently explained to them that the head of the Wagner Group was an advocate for a form of war in Ukraine far harsher than the one being waged now.
Much of the commentary over the past few days has focused on how the barely-averted mutiny represents a "game changer" in that it undermines Putin's domestic political position and exposes rifts within Russia's military architecture.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a stab at dialing back the frenzy Monday. "Everyone has a lot of questions about what this actually means," Trudeau said during a visit to Iceland to meet with regional leaders to discuss the war, "but we don't yet have a lot of answers."
He called it a matter for Russia to work through and said that too much speculation probably would be "extremely counterproductive."
WATCH: Belarusian opposition leader reacts to Wagner revolt
Andrew Rasiulis, a defence expert with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said it's more productive to look at what the mutiny says about Putin's strategy of a long war — one that's meant to grind down Ukraine's will to resist and drive wedges among western allies.
The war, he said, cannot just keep chugging along the way it has — not now that there's been an open revolt and Russia is being threatened internally.
"I just don't think you can say, 'Let's just keep doing what we were doing,'" said Rasiulis, who used to be in charge of arms control policy at the Department of National Defence.
"This weekend changes things. I think he's got to come up with something new."
Asking what Putin and the Russian military establishment can do now means stepping off the edge into the kind of speculation Trudeau believes should be avoided.
Rasiulis said he believes the events of the weekend invariably must lead to some kind of military doubling-down by Putin — but what that would look like remains to be seen.
He noted that Russia has military capabilities and strategies it has yet to employ, such as wholesale aerial bombardment of cities using high-flying bombers instead of missiles and drones.
It's unlikely Russia will resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, Rasiulis said.
Leigh Sarty, a former diplomat and adjunct professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, said there's not much comfort to be taken from last weekend's events when you look at it through a western, pro-Ukrainian lens.
He agreed that the threat posed by Prigozhin — no matter how thoroughly neutered it may seem now, with the mercenary boss in Belarusian exile — will only harden the Kremlin's resolve to prosecute and finish the war.
"As perceptions of Putin's vulnerability fuel future Kremlin machinations, there doesn't appear to be any prospect that these will result in a more moderate approach on Ukraine and East-West relations more generally. In fact, likely the opposite," said Sarty, who did two stints at Canada's embassy in Moscow.
NATO's focus now, he added, should be on doing "everything they can to keep NATO united in continued support" of Ukraine.
Response to the revolt among NATO countries has been muted. U.S. President Joe Biden summed up the allied attitude when he said that nobody wants to give Putin an excuse for blaming the mutiny on the West.
In a further sign the drama may not be over, Putin on Monday blasted organizers of the revolt, describing them as "traitors" who played into the hands of Ukraine's government and its allies.
Prigozhin and his troops were promised amnesty as long as they signed contacts that formally brought them into the Russian military, laid down their arms and went home, or followed their boss into exile.
Russia's top prosecutor also said that the criminal case against the mutineers remains open and it's clear authorities in Moscow will tread carefully.
The future of the Wagner Group is something that merits close scrutiny, said Catrina Doxsee of the Washington-based Center For Strategic and International Studies in an online piece published Monday.
"Despite recent focus on its role in Ukraine, the bulk of Wagner's operations are centered in Africa in countries such as Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, and Madagascar," Doxsee wrote.
"There, Wagner routinely exchanges paramilitary services for access to natural resources such as gold and gemstones."
It is an economic bargain that the Kremlin is loath to give up.
"Wagner's paramilitary activities are a cornerstone of Russia's efforts to expand its geopolitical and military power on the African continent, and the exploitation of natural resources allows Moscow to lessen the impact of international sanctions," said Doxsee's analysis.
She said the weakening of the Wagner Group could open the door for the U.S. and its allies to pry Africa away from Moscow's influence.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
