4 things we know — and 4 we don't — about Russia's armed rebellion and its fallout
Western leaders take wait-and-see approach to deal between Kremlin, mercenary chief
Two days after an armed rebellion in Russia stopped suddenly on the road to Moscow, observers are watching closely to see how the deal struck between the Kremlin and the mercenary chief who led the revolt plays out.
An ongoing feud between Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russia's military leadership led to a mutiny that saw the former's mercenaries leave Ukraine to seize a military headquarters in a southern Russian city. They then rolled for hundreds of kilometres toward Moscow, before turning around Saturday.
Western leaders are taking a wait-and-see approach to the mysterious deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying speculation about an "internal issue for Russia" would be "extremely counterproductive."
The short-lived insurrection could have major repercussions for Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip on power; for the Wagner Group, which has been a key combatant in Ukraine and Africa; and for the front lines in Ukraine. But foreign governments, both friendly and hostile to Russia, have been left groping for answers about what has happened behind the scenes and what could come next.
Here are four things we know — and four things we don't — about Russia's armed rebellion, the biggest challenge to Putin since he took power at the turn of the century.
What we know
1) The Kremlin said the deal would see Prigozhin move to Belarus and receive amnesty, along with his soldiers.
Officials said the deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Putin ally, to de-escalate the situation and avoid bloodshed.
Prigozhin, 62, spoke in an audio message Monday, but the former Putin ally and ex-convict gave no indication of where he was. He said Lukashenko had offered to let Wagner operate under a legal framework, but did not elaborate.
In a statement to the nation Monday, Putin said he would honour his promise to allow Wagner fighters to relocate to Belarus if they wanted, or to sign a contract with the Defence Ministry or simply return to their families. Prigozhin said most of his fighters refused to come under the Defence Ministry's command.
2) This was not a bloodless standoff.
Russian media reported that several military helicopters and a communications plane were shot down by Wagner forces, killing at least 15. Prigozhin expressed regret for downing the aircraft but said they were bombing his convoys.
He also claims the trigger for the rebellion was an attack on his men.
3) Putin and Russia appear less stable, experts say.
Retired U.S. army lieutenant-general Ben Hodges told CBC News Network on Monday that the rebellion revealed the "structural weakness" of Putin's Russia, a view echoed by other observers including the president of neighbouring Moldova and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
"Putin clearly is not in total control," Hodges said. "Prighozin turned away, but the ease with which he was able to move, the fact that there were not people in the streets rallying around the president. Apparently not many in the military really stepped forward to try and stop Prigozhin or the Wagner column."
He said Russian intelligence is either incompetent or complicit in the insurrection, given how easily Prigozhin amassed his troops without detection.
4) The weekend's events will likely have an effect on both sides' battlefield morale.
"Soldiers at the front lines are positive about it," said Serhii Cherevatiy, spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Group of Forces. "Any chaos and disorder on the enemy's side benefits us."
A video of well-known Ukrainian drone commander "Magyar" watching the revolt while eating enormous amounts of popcorn went viral. A plethora of gleeful memes mocking Putin inundated social media, and statement after statement from Ukraine's top brass described the turmoil as a sure sign of more instability to come.
Video of the famous Ukrainian drone commander “Magyar” watching the military coup in Russia while eating enormous amounts of salted popcorn <a href="https://t.co/eSkne0GvJP">pic.twitter.com/eSkne0GvJP</a>
—@visegrad24Ukrainian soldier Andrii Kvasnytsia, 50, who was injured fighting in the eastern city of Bakhmut, said: "Everyone is excited."
"My friend called me today and he said: 'Andrii, I haven't been drinking for so many years, but today I have a good reason to drink," he said. "It is all hard, not easy, but we will certainly win."
Hodges said the news will have an inevitable psychological impact on Russian soldiers who will begin to wonder what is going on "above them and behind them."
On Russian Telegram channels, military servicemen who blog about the war urged Russian soldiers to stay focused on the war. "Brothers! Everyone who holds a weapon at the line of contact, remember, your enemy is across from you," read one message.
What we don't know
1) Did the attack on Wagner's troops — which Prigozhin called the "trigger" — actually happen?
Prigozhin said Monday that his troops moved in response to an attack on a Wagner camp in Ukraine that killed some 30 of his fighters.
Russia denies any such attack, and the U.S. had intelligence that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the border for some time, according to reports by The Associated Press and CNN, citing anonymous sources.
2) Will Prigozhin really stay in Belarus?
Prigozhin, notorious for unbridled and profane challenges to authority even before the attempted rebellion, is slated for exile in a country where such behaviour is even less acceptable than in his homeland.
Prigozhin's statement Monday gave no indication where he was or what the exact plans for he and his troops were, and exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told CBC News that she was dubious about his purported landing spot.
"I'm not sure Prigozhin will actually come and stay in Belarus. Who knows, but ... his ambitions and his appetites are much bigger," she said.
Russian media reported that a criminal case against Prigozhin hasn't been closed, despite earlier Kremlin statements, and some Russian lawmakers called for his head. Putin, however, has not mentioned Prigozhin by name since the rebellion began.
3) What does the rebellion mean for Russia's military brass?
The Kremlin Monday showed Putin meeting with top security, law enforcement and military officials, including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom the uprising had tried to remove. Putin thanked members of his team for their work over the weekend, implying support for the embattled Shoigu. Earlier, the authorities released a video of Shoigu reviewing troops in Ukraine.
Before the uprising, Prigozhin had blasted Shoigu and General Staff Chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov with expletive-ridden insults for months.
4) Beyond morale, how will this affect the war?
It was not yet clear what any fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine.
But it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the battlefield: the Wagner troops, who had shown their effectiveness in scoring the Kremlin's only land victory in months, in Bakhmut, and Chechen soldiers sent to stop them on the approach to Moscow.
With files from The Associated Press, CBC's Briar Stewart and Reuters