Trudeau says he hears Canadians' 'concerns and frustrations' after dramatic byelection loss
Conservatives won the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he hears Canadians' "concerns and frustrations" as questions mount about his future as Liberal leader following his party's stunning byelection loss.
Conservative Don Stewart won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's in the early hours of Tuesday in a dramatic win, ending a race that was largely viewed as a referendum on Trudeau's leadership.
"This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear your concerns and frustrations," Trudeau said in a media statement. He did not take questions from reporters.
"These are not easy times. And it is clear, I and my entire team, have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel."
Before Monday's close vote, a Conservative candidate hadn't been competitive in Toronto-St. Paul's since the 1980s. The party hadn't won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election.
Éric Grenier, a polling analyst who runs thewrit.ca, said that while the polls suggested the byelection would be close, even the Conservatives likely were surprised by the win.
"Could it get much worse for the Liberals? This is perhaps one of the worst results that they could have had right now because they're going into the summer, there's been lots of questions about Justin Trudeau's leadership," he said.
"This is a big loss for the Liberals and it's a symbolic loss. I think there are going to be a lot of questions that are going to start being asked over the next few weeks."
The outgoing Liberal MP for the riding, Carolyn Bennett, beat her Conservative opponent by about 24 points in 2021. This time around, Liberal candidate Leslie Church lost by about two points.
Stewart's win broke the Liberals' grip on urban Toronto and raises questions for Liberal MPs who thought their seats were safe.
Roughly 55 Liberal MPs won their Ontario ridings by margins smaller than the one Bennett posted in Toronto–St. Paul's in the last general election, according to a CBC News analysis of past election data.
"Will there be a lot of Liberal MPs who are going to look at these results in Toronto-St. Paul's and think to themselves, 'I won my riding by a margin that was a lot smaller than 24 points, what are my chances of being re-elected?'" said Grenier.
MPs muse privately about a shakeup
The Liberals have been dogged by dismal poll numbers for a year.
A recent Abacus survey gave the Conservatives a 20-point lead over the Liberals.
Trudeau's own approval rating hasn't fared much better. The same Abacus poll found that 59 per cent of those surveyed had a negative opinion of the prime minister, while 33 per cent have a positive view of him.
Trudeau has repeatedly told journalists he plans to stay on as leader of the party and has down played the poll numbers. Last week, he told CBC's Power & Politics Canadians aren't in "decision mode" yet.
"We will never stop working and fighting to make sure you have what you need to get through these tough times. My focus is on your success and that's where it's going to stay," he said Tuesday.
Already, some Liberal MPs are musing behind the scenes about a shakeup.
"I think he has to go or there has to be a dramatic change," one Liberal MP told CBC News Tuesday, speaking on the condition they not be named.
Another Liberal MP, also speaking on the condition they not be named, said major changes are needed.
"Does he have to go? I think it's difficult to see other options," they said.
A third Liberal MP, speaking on the condition they not be named, told CBC News they feel their party's actions over the past year have been "tone-deaf."
"I think the prime minister, just to safeguard his own legacy, has to step down," they said.
Other Liberals stand by Trudeau — in public
Another Liberal source attributed MPs' complaints to a need to vent.
"I don't think you're going to see a phalanx of 25 caucus members coming to the mic saying it's time to go," they said.
Liberals MPs who spoke publicly Tuesday backed the prime minister.
"The prime minister is committed to leading us into the next election and he has our support," said Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.
"This is a disappointing result. We take it seriously."
Minister of Northern Affairs Dan Vandal said he supports Trudeau "100 per cent."
"I think the real question Canadians are going to ask themselves is, what sort of Canada do you want to live in?" he said during a news conference.
"Do you want to live in a Canada where a government invests in its people, in health care, dental care, child care and a whole bunch of other initiatives? Or do you want a Canada where everything is gradually cut back, which a Poilievre government is sure to do."
Liberal MP for Whitby MP Ryan Turnbull said Trudeau will have to re-evaluate and reflect after the byelection result.
"But that's up to him," he said.
Liberal backbencher Marcus Powlowski, who represents Thunder Bay—Rainy River, said Trudeau has earned the right to make his own decision.
"Nobody's going to last forever as a politician, but that calculus, that walk in the snow, is for him to make, not for me to push him over in the snowbank, " he said referring to Trudeau's father's famous resignation line.
"I let him walk his walk."
Liberals don't have a leadership review mechanism
The Liberal Party doesn't have a leadership review mechanism built into its constitution. It does allow for "leadership endorsement" ballots, which permit registered Liberals to vote on whether they still support the current leader.
The endorsement ballot is conducted by each riding association and each riding is weighted equally, with 100 points. A leader needs 50 per cent of the points nationally to stay on.
But such a vote occurs only after the party loses a general election.
In 2015, Parliament adopted legislation meant to make party leaders more accountable to their caucus members.
The Reform Act — put forward by Conservative MP Michael Chong — allows MPs to review and remove their party leader. Under the Reform Act, if 20 per cent of a caucus signs a petition calling for a leadership review, a vote is triggered. If a majority of the MPs vote against the leader, the leader is forced to step down.
But the Reform Act states that parties must vote on whether to adopt any of its measures after each general election. The Conservative Party is the only one that has done so; the party used the Reform Act to oust Erin O'Toole from the leadership in 2022.
Congratulations to Common Sense Conservative candidate, <a href="https://twitter.com/donstewartTO?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@donstewartTO</a>, on a shocking upset in Toronto-St. Paul’s, where people voted to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime.<br><br>Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax… <a href="https://t.co/72n6c2h9jC">pic.twitter.com/72n6c2h9jC</a>
—@PierrePoilievreCelebrating his party's win Tuesday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre urged the prime minister to call an early election.
"Here is the verdict: Trudeau can't go on like this," he posted on social media. "He must call a carbon tax election now."
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who has been supporting the Liberal minority government through a confidence-and-supply agreement, said the byelection results show people are frustrated.
"People are really angry at the Liberals," he said. "People want change, so now it's a matter of what change people want."
He told reporters his party will continue to use its leverage with the minority government to push for its priorities.
Liberal Party spokesperson Parker Lund said the Liberals know there's hard work ahead of them
"We knew this would be a tough race, with byelections not often favouring the governing party," he said in a media statement.
"Our Liberal team is ready to keep working to reach Canadians."
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With files from Catherine Cullen, J.P. Tasker and Darren Major