Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result
Stunning result raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future
Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, a stunning result that raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future.
Stewart's victory is shocking because the seat has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years — even through the party's past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.
Before Monday's vote, a Conservative candidate hadn't been competitive in Toronto–St. Paul's since the 1980s. The party hadn't won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election.
Monday's result was a nail-biter to the very end.
For more than seven hours of counting, Liberal candidate Leslie Church was in the lead. But with 189 of 192 polls reporting, the lead flipped to Stewart.
The final batch of votes posted around 4:30 a.m. ET delivered the seat to Stewart and a major breakthrough to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
In the end, Stewart, a consultant, claimed victory with about 42 per cent of the vote against Church, a former Parliament Hill staffer and lawyer, who took roughly 40 per cent of the ballots cast.
The Liberals' poor showing in a stronghold like this could prompt some soul-searching for Trudeau, who has seen his popularity plummet as inflation, the cost of living crisis, high home prices and surging immigration levels drive voter discontent.
This Conservative upset is likely to lead to some anxiety in the Liberal caucus because such a dramatic vote swing could put other supposedly "safe" seats in play for the Conservatives in the next general election.
The outgoing Liberal MP, Carolyn Bennett, beat her Conservative opponent by some 24 points in this riding in 2021. Church lost by about two points.
If that same sort of vote swing was applied to other ridings in the province, dozens of Liberal MPs could lose their seats at the next election.
Roughly 55 Liberal MPs won their Ontario ridings by a smaller margin than what Bennett posted here in Toronto–St. Paul's in the last general election, according to a CBC News analysis of past election data.
Bennett, a popular figure in the party with a strong local following, resigned last year after 26 years in Parliament to become Canada's ambassador to Denmark.
Trudeau's main rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, urged the prime minister to call an early election in a social media post Tuesday morning.
"Here is the verdict: Trudeau can't go on like this," Poilievre posted on X. "He must call a carbon tax election now."
Congratulations to Common Sense Conservative candidate, <a href="https://twitter.com/donstewartTO?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@donstewartTO</a>, on a shocking upset in Toronto-St. Paul’s, where people voted to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime.<br><br>Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax… <a href="https://t.co/72n6c2h9jC">pic.twitter.com/72n6c2h9jC</a>
—@PierrePoilievreChurch vowed to re-offer in the general election, which is expected next year as long as the Liberal's confidence-and supply-agreement with the NDP holds.
"This morning's close result is disappointing, but it is a beginning, not an end," she said in a statement Tuesday morning.
"Yesterday, voters in Toronto–St. Paul's sent us a clear message, that they want us to re-earn their trust. I hear that message loud and clear, and that's exactly what we plan to do."
The Liberal Party deployed heavy hitters like deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and a dozen other cabinet ministers to the riding to shore up Church's support but, in the end, it wasn't enough.
Voters in the riding told CBC News throughout the campaign that the government's handling of the housing crisis, inflation and the Israel-Hamas conflict were sore spots.
But it wasn't just about the issues — a number of voters expressed a desire for change and fatigue with Trudeau.
Even past and present Liberal supporters told CBC News Trudeau should resign as leader if the party loses this one-time ruby red Liberal seat.
Trudeau has given no indication he's stepping down.
In fact, he's repeatedly said he will lead the party into the federal election that's expected sometime next year.
Before Monday's result, many pollsters and pundits said a Conservative victory will put pressure on Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader.
"If we do end up on Monday night with a two, three, four, five-point win for the Liberals, the Liberals will be happy to have a win, but that still means that the country is going toward a big majority government for Pierre Poilievre," polls analyst Éric Grenier, who runs thewrit.ca, said in an interview on Rosemary Barton Live.
David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, said he believes the Liberals need to win by 10 points or more to give Trudeau a credible path forward.
"I think then the prime minister can probably say, 'Look, we can come back from this. We can convince people, persuade people to vote Liberal,' " Coletto said on Rosemary Barton Live. "If it is much closer, then I think there's going to be a lot more doubt about whether he and the current team are able to achieve some of those things."
Jenni Byrne, a senior adviser to Poilievre, had said the party was expecting a loss in the riding.
Speaking to CBC News from Stewart's election night party before any results were released, Byrne said Toronto–St. Paul's "will probably stay on the Liberal side of things."
But she said the Conservatives are "going to see we've done better than we have in the past."
Byrne said there are questions for the Liberal team if Church's results are much less than what Bennett posted in the last election.
A strong Conservative performance suggests some other supposedly safe Liberal seats like neighbouring Eglinton-Lawrence and Willowdale, and seats in Etobicoke and North York could be in play, Byrne said.
The NDP candidate, Amrit Parhar, struggled to make much of a mark with about 11 per cent of the vote in Toronto–St. Paul's — a worse performance than what the party achieved in the last general election.
The NDP could have been a contender in this race — the party currently holds the seat provincially. NDP MPP Jill Andrew has won the riding in the last two provincial elections.
The Green candidate, Christian Cullis, drew about three per cent of the vote while the People's Party candidate barely registered with less than one per cent of all ballots cast.
It took hours for Elections Canada workers to count all the ballots.
While polls closed at 8:30 p.m. ET, the final results weren't known until about 4:30 a.m. — an inordinately long time to count the results in a single riding.
The agency said it was bogged down because there were dozens of candidates on the unwieldy, nearly metre-long ballot — some of whom are proportional-representation activists running as a protest to the country's first-past-the-post voting system.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
