Oscars 2025: Who's likely to win, who should win — and how to sound smart at your Oscars party

Ready for the Oscars party … but not so much the awards? 

That would make sense. From Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón's racist tweets resurfacing, to The Brutalist's use of AI, to allegations of "category fraud" (don't worry, we'll get to it), it's been nearly impossible to keep up with the Academy controversy — even for those of us paid to do it. 

So, for those with a normal nine-to-five, a cheat sheet might come in handy before the 97th Academy Awards air this Sunday, March 2. 

To help, we've gathered some of the top categories, their projected winners and even thrown in some wildcards for you in case of upsets — along with all the nerdy tidbits you need to sound like you've been watching along all season.

Best picture

Probably: Anora

Maybe: Conclave

Should (Not) Win: Emilia Pérez

If frontrunner Anora triumphs, it will be the lowest-grossing winner since 1977's Annie Hall (excluding the pandemic-hampered, digitally released CODA). If adjusted for inflation, it would be among the lowest ever — potentially showcasing how the awards have drifted even further away from audiences. 

If latecomer Conclave manages an upset (presaged by its best film award at the BAFTAS and cast award at the Screen Actors Guild awards), things might feel a bit more on-track. Its gross is north of $100 million US.

Previous frontrunner Emilia Pérez is almost definitely going home empty-handed here, but with its huge 13 nominations now tainted by controversy, it could earn a different distinction. If it wins just one award, it will be the losingest movie in the Academy's history. If it only wins two, it will be tied with Becket and Johnny Belinda (nominated for 12, winning one) and The Turning Point and The Color Purple (nominated for 11, winning none). If it loses everything, well, that will be crazy, won't it?

Best director

Probably: Sean Baker, Anora

Maybe: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Should Have Won: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Corbet is competitive here, but Baker's Anora is definitely favoured. The winners of the directing categories at the BAFTAs and the Directors Guild of America awards almost identically mimic the best director winner at the Oscars, but there was a split this year, with Corbet winning the BAFTA, and Baker picking up the DGA award.

If you're looking for an edge, Baker has the rare distinction of earning personal nominations in four categories — something the Academy could look for when determining which director had more hands-on involvement in shaping their vision. If Baker won all four, he'd match a prestigious record: only Walt Disney and Bong Joon Ho have actually won four in one night — though Joon's "international film" award for Parasite technically went to South Korea.

He wasn't nominated here, but RaMell Ross deserves it. Having only made documentaries before this, his Nickel Boys exploded in critical conversation for his use of actor-mounted rigs to tell a first-person POV story about racial injustice. 

Best actor

Probably: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Maybe: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Should Win: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

There have been some mutterings over AI that was used to improve Brody's Hungarian-language dialogue, but The Brutalist actor will likely add a second Oscar to his cabinet. If Timothée Chalamet, 29, does manage to win, he would beat Brody's record as youngest winner in the category. 

He won't get it, but Sebastian Stan deserves gold here for his subversive and eerily accurate portrayal of a younger Donald Trump before he became the U.S. president — as well as for how difficult and unlikely it was for the film to ever reach audiences. 

Trump's lawsuit threats against the movie coincided with distributors distancing themselves from political films and documentaries. It also hit the festival circuit shortly after Participant — the activist studio behind previous Oscar winners Spotlight and An Inconvenient Truth — closed its doors over a seeming decline in appetite for films meant to inspire social change. Stan winning would be a defiant, if unlikely, sign of Hollywood's protest. 

Best actress

Probably: Mikey Madison, Anora

Maybe: Demi Moore, The Substance

Should Have Won: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

In an even closer contest than director, every nominee would be a first-time winner. Demi Moore has a Cinderella story cast in gold from her Golden Globes speech earlier this year, though Mikey Madison's turn in Anora has her at the top of most betting cards. That's ignoring the snubbed actress Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who should win for her haunting performance in Hard Truths, as well as the snubbed Challengers, which should have catapulted Zendaya to her first nomination.

If Fernanda Torres mounts an upset, she would be the first Brazilian actress to win. Her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, became the first Brazilian actress nominated in this category in 1999.

Best supporting actress

Probably: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Maybe: Ariana Grande, Wicked

Should Have Won: Michele Austin, Hard Truths

Get ready for "category fraud" debates. The term refers to the idea that some actors are nominated in categories that don't fit the size of their role. Zoe Saldaña, the clear favourite here, actually has more screentime than her co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, who's nominated for best actress. My runner-up is Ariana Grande as Glinda in Wicked, who's onscreen just a few minutes less than her co-star Cynthia Erivo — also up for best actress. When Broadway actress Kristin Chenoweth was nominated for the same role at the Tonys, she ran in the lead actor category, not supporting.

But Oscars voters are able to decide for themselves who is "supporting," a process usually influenced by For Your Consideration campaigns. Producers running those campaigns prefer to split their performers across categories, so they don't compete against one another. This is all ignoring the fact that Michele Austin should win this category for her incredible work as an actual supporting character in Hard Truths. 

Best supporting actor

Probably: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Maybe: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Should Win: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Kieran Culkin is perhaps the surest bet of any at the awards. He faces the same "category fraud" allegations (he shares almost identical screentime with co-star and director Jesse Eisenberg) but they haven't seemed to stick — he's racked up numerous wins including the Critics Choice and Independent Spirit Awards, the Globes and many more.  

Honestly, every nominee here deserves the win, but Jeremy Strong should triumph. His chameleon-like transformation into Trump mentor Roy Cohn is a career-defining performance, Vulture writer Bilge Ebiri argues, and the best performance in any capacity for all of 2024. 

But as he competes against his former Succession co-star Culkin, and as actress Sarah Snook's Memoir of a Snail is nominated for best animated feature, you can at least gossip that all three main Roy siblings stand a chance of going home with gold. 

Best documentary

Probably: No Other Land

Maybe: Porcelain War

Should Have Won: Daughters

Get ready to scratch your head: as with The Apprentice, the shortlisted documentaries have struggled to find audiences. Nowhere else is that more apparent than in the studio-eschewed Israeli-Palestinian war doc No Other Land.

Many awards prognosticators have therefore given the edge to Porcelain War, a more hopeful and (at least for now), politically acceptable film from the perspective of artists defending Ukraine against Russian invasion.  

If either of those two movies prevail, it will be the third winner in a row to focus on contemporary political violence. The last time that happened was when the category was introduced — during the Second World War. 

Don't let that distract you from the snubbed, but gorgeous, documentary Daughters, about incarcerated men struggling to form connections with their daughters.

Best Animated Feature

Probably: Flow

Maybe: The Wild Robot

Should Win: Memoir of a Snail

Flow, a heartwarming and dialogue-free Latvian co-production, is the David against this year's Goliath: Dreamworks' The Wild Robot. With this category trading wins at other awards leading up to the Oscars, it's really anyone's bet. Though the incredible emotional and technical achievement of Flow, with an estimated $4 million US budget, going up against Wild Robot, a bloated and narratively divided movie with an $80 million US budget, has me pulling for the little guy.

If I could pick, it would be Memoir of a Snail, the Australian stop-motion tearjerker about friendship, loss and snails. Having seen every feature and short nominated this year, Memoir of a Snail is my favourite of all of them — by a country mile.