The Oscars are 9 days away. Here are our predictions for the big night

This past Tuesday, voting for the 97th Academy Awards officially closed — and the races for the biggest awards of the night are still almost too close to call.

With a few conflicts and controversies leading up to one of the most anticipated nights of the award season, many are speculating about who will take home best picture, best actor and best supporting role.

Today on Commotion, culture critics Rad Simonpillai, Teri Hart and Jackson Weaver join host Elamin Abelmahmoud for a special episode, recorded in front of a live audience, to talk about their predictions for the 2025 Oscars, and the politics of award campaigns.

We've included some highlights below, edited for length and clarity. For the full discussion, listen and follow Commotion with Elamin Abdelmahmoud on your favourite podcast player.

Elamin: By all accounts, Emilia Perez did have the momentum heading into the Oscars. It wins best picture at the Golden Globes despite all the criticisms about the representation of the trans character, despite the criticisms about the representation of Mexico. You and I did a podcast called TIFF in 12 when TIFF was happening…. What I want to get to is what Teri said on that show, because Teri was like, "I think this might be the greatest movie ever made," or something?

Teri: I loved it. I fully loved it.

Elamin: Look, there's not a lot of people who are still willing to be like, "Emilia Perez, that movie bangs," and I respect you for that. 

Teri: The tense was loved.

Elamin: Right, because the vibe has shifted a little bit. How would you say all the controversies surrounding this movie have maybe shifted how you see it?

Teri: Well, it's not winning best picture. I'll say that — not in my heart, either. So yeah, I saw it at TIFF and I loved it.… I went hard for Emilia Perez for a really long time. 

Elamin: I don't want to pretend like you're the only one. I loved it too. I had the exact same kind of reaction. And I can't believe that I'm out here saying this on public radio, but it's fine.

Teri: And I will say that it seems I have blind spots. I mean, I watch this movie as a cisgender white woman, and what I saw was a spectacle. And I love spectacles. I love a big swing of a movie, and Emilia Perez is a big swing of a movie. Then I heard from the transgender community, and I still was like, OK, I hear that. I've always believed that one movie can't represent an entire community. And I did believe that Karla Sofía Gascón took on this role, and she herself is a trans woman, and I thought that should count for something. And so my narrative was becoming muted.… And then we hear from Mexican people, and we hear about the whole thing being shot in France and never being in Mexico.… Those things do matter to the movie. Who makes movies matter, how they tell those stories matter and I have had to step back. 

And then the Karla Sofía Gascón tweets, which are just so reprehensible. And then to think that she tried to make an apology that didn't even come close to an apology? It's all frankly been a disaster, and not a disaster in a way that is just about the movie. It is a disaster in a way that matters to the world and how we look at entertainment. And when we're looking at entertainment that is supposed to be enlightening us in some way, that is supposed to be changing the narrative and how we look at things, this ends up being a really big problem. I'm very sad for a movie that I think actually had some really great film qualities in it, that this is what it's ended up being. But you cannot ignore that that is what Emilia Perez has ended up being.

Elamin: Jackson, whose race is it to lose at this point? 

Jackson: It's the most boring answer, but Anora. It's the one that is almost definitely going to run away with it, and not necessarily for super happy reasons…. I mean, so many of these movies at this festival, as Rad noted, have this kind of stink of controversy surrounding them, or other ones that aren't necessarily as glowing or amazing. A Complete Unknown, I will defend that movie, but it's still kind of like a "dad" movie. There's not much there that's gonna get you, like cheering in the street…. It's good, but it's not going to change your life. I'm Still Here? Good, not going to change your life. Conclave? Fun, popcorn movie. 

These movies aren't necessarily things that are going to change cinema for years and years. And while Emilia Perez, I was a hater, it was changing people. It was affecting people. Now that that is dead in a ditch in a town burning for 100 years, the only one that has some semblance of, like, infecting people with emotion are on one hand, The Substance, but horror winning best picture? Probably pretty unlikely. And the other one, Anora. It's good enough that it's not evil.

You can listen to the full discussion from today's show on CBC Listen or on our podcast, Commotion with Elamin Abdelmahmoud, available wherever you get your podcasts.

Panel produced by Danielle Grogan and Jean Kim.