What to watch for in Windsor's municipal election

Now that nominations are closed for the October municipal elections, residents can get a sense of what Windsor's city council could look like come the fall. 

To get a sense of what to watch for, CBC Radio's Windsor Morning spoke with Pat Papdeas, a St. Clair College law professor, and Coun. Bill Marra on what they're watching for in this election. 

Marra, who was first elected to council in 1994, decided not to run again in the 2018 race. He said he's surprised with the "low" number of candidates, which the City of Windsor will confirm Monday. 

"It's actually 53 candidates across the city and when you consider that nine of them are in Ward 8, it's a low number of candidates that have registered," he said. 

But that won't make the race any less interesting.

Incumbents VS newbies 

Marra said there is an idea that incumbents are very hard to beat in municipal elections, but he said he's seen it multiple times in his career. But Papadeas said incumbents do have one big advantage going for them. 

"They have the advantage of name recognition ... to already having acquired data, having acquired voter support from previous elections, having sign locations, there is a distinct advantage," she said. 

But one thing that does stand out to both Marra and Papadeas is the diversity of the councillors planning to challenge incumbents. 

"There are 11 women and we do see a range of ages that have stepped up and I think there is some diversity in the options in terms of who may represent around the table," said Papadeas. 

"It's nice to see some diversity around gender and race and a little more representative of our very diverse community," said Marra. 

Mayors race

It's that name recognition that could "boil down" the mayoral race to two leading candidates, as both Papadeas and Marra said they'll be watching closely.

Current Mayor Drew Dilkens is squaring off against Matt Marchand, Frank Dyck, Tom Hensel, and Ernie Lamont. 

But it's Marchand, former president and CEO of the Windsor-Essex Chamber of Commerce, that Marra believes will be in the limelight. 

"My impression is that it'll likely boil down to a couple higher profile names," he said. "I suspect that's going to the be the race that's going to materialize over the next 60 plus days."

Dilkens will be taking any challenger quite seriously, Marra said, and it will be difficult to predict when the race will really heat up. 

"Historically it was post-Labour Day when things ramped up but historically elections were in November," said Marra, pointing to changes to the Municipal Elections Act.

He said August could be a time when all candidates start pushing each other on prime issues. 

Papadeas said Dilkens has a "solid seat" as mayor, especially since the economy has turned around during his first term in the role. 

"We can talk about the splits that have happened on council —  a lot of that has to be I think a matter of style in terms of the type of mayor that Drew Dilkens is— but when you take a look at the issues and how many people are engaged in them we'll see how that translates into seeing motivated voters come out for any change there," she said. 

Ones to watch

Other than the mayor's race, Papadeas said she's watching Ward 2. That's because incumbent Coun. John Elliott has one other candidate to beat — Fabio Costante. 

Marra agrees on that ward to watch because any two-candidate ward gives voters the option to go "anti-councillor or anti-mayor."

Papadeas is also watching closely as the new mega-hospital location will be an issue which plays into politics for the candidates in that area. It's specific issues like the hospital that she and Marra believe could make or break candidates. 

"In some cases they are ward specific so are there things that have happened in the ward that the residents may say 'We're not satisfied with the representation,' there," said Papadeas. 

She said it can also be difficult to unseat long-standing councillors, like Jo-Anne Gignac in Ward 6, because of the large portfolio the incumbent has that may resonate with residents there.

Hear more from Pat Papadeas and Bill Marra on the CBC's Windsor Morning:

Voter engagement 

Both Papdeas and Marra recognize one big issue when it comes to municipal politics and that's voter turnout. According to the city's records, about 37 per cent of registered voters cast a ballot in the 2014 election. 

Marra said he wishes people were more engaged, because it's at the municipal level that residents will see the most change after they cast their ballot. 

He said those votes have the "greatest impact day to day" because decisions made in council could see traction within days. 

"That's a challenge we have to kind of get our heads around and find a way to motivate people," Marra said.