Toronto mayoral hopefuls jockey to knock Olivia Chow from top spot as election day nears

With just over two weeks to go before election day, the top candidates to become Toronto's next mayor see one obstacle in their way: Olivia Chow.

The race front-runner appears to have a significant lead, if the polls are to be believed (more on that here). She has a pile of lawn signs up around the city and her voice is on the radio and TV.

With their runway quickly running out, experts say the campaign could turn negative in its remaining days as candidates try to chip away at Chow's support.

"There is never a point in any campaign when someone is unbeatable," former city councillor Joe Mihevc said. "However, I would think that there are many people in the Olivia Chow campaign that are feeling the momentum, and feeling good about where they are standing right now."

Chow has been here before. She had a lead in the 2014 campaign but ended up finishing in third place.

Mihevc said the key for her will be to work hard to turn her support into votes at the polls. Byelections are notorious for low voter engagement, so the margin for victory will likely be tight, he added.

"That is a very, very big effort and she seems to have the machine to be able to do that."

York University public policy professor Zac Spicer said Chow's team face critical decisions in the coming weeks. Does she run a traditional low-risk front runner campaign or push the envelope in a bid to fend off attacks and woo new voters?

"I think she is going to be playing a lot more offence over the next couple of weeks," he said. "Her campaign team has been here before... So I think that they're not going to sit back."

Saunders bills himself as the 'Stop Chow' candidate

Ten weeks into the campaign, Mark Saunders seized on the anti-Chow theme on Thursday, announcing a new website and fashioning himself as the alternative to the former NDP MP, appealing to the other candidates to stand by him.

"I am the only candidate who can stop Olivia Chow," he said at a news conference. "A vote for any other candidate is a vote for Chow. I invite all the other candidates to join me in this campaign."

Spicer said it's not surprising that an "anyone but Olivia" campaign has started to crop up. But he thinks it could be too late for Saunders, who has polled a distant second behind Chow, to make up the ground required. 

And just because Saunders has dubbed himself the one and only "Stop Chow" candidate, doesn't make it so, he added.

"I think that a lot of campaigns now are trying to play catch up, they're going to be a lot more aggressive in the next couple of weeks," Spicer said.

Mihevc said the climb into that role could be harder for Saunders than he's letting on, with right-leaning populist Anthony Furey gaining in some polls and city councillor Brad Bradford also encroaching on that side of the political spectrum.

"I think it's a combination of character, history, and policies that are hurting Mark Saunders from getting more attention," he said. "And also, he has people eating his lunch like Bradford and Furey."

Figuring prominently into Saunders's  announcement Thursday was a promise to "freeze taxes." That promise comes with some fine print. The former police chief's team says he would adopt former mayor John Tory's approach of "freezing" taxes at the rate of inflation. 

In other words, Saunders would increase taxes by the rate of inflation at budget time if elected. In 2023, Toronto city council adopted a post-amalgamation record 5.5 per cent tax hike in line with the rate of inflation at the time.

On the issue of taxes there are still a lot of question marks around Chow's preferred property tax rate and Saunders's lack of a costed budget.

You can read more about that here. 

Things that caught my eye this week

Advance polls are open and the city is changing things up for this byelection.

To make it easier for people to cast a ballot ahead of June 26, eligible voters can go to any of the 50 polling locations across the city. You aren't restricted to your local polling station as in past years. If you wait until election day, then you'll need to go to your local station.

The Zoomer Radio/CARP debate on Wednesday focused on issues important to seniors, but was also noteworthy because of the inclusion of Chloe Brown and Furey. They were part of an eight-candidate event, which was raucous at times. Brown showed off her policy chops throughout the event, while Furey clashed with Josh Matlow over the future of the city's supervised injection sites. You can read more about that debate here.

CBC Toronto held a 90-minute mayoral debate this week which featured five of the top candidates in the race. That event led to some fiery exchanges, but also gave the candidates a chance to show off their personalities with some lighter questions. Read about it here. 

The pace of policy announcements was a bit slower this week, likely owing to the CBC Toronto, Zoomer Radio and Operation Black Vote debates. If you're looking for a rundown of policy announcements this week or if you're feeling a little lost about the election in general, this story is a good place to catch up.

There were a number of high-profile endorsements this week. Chow received the support of three city councillors — Amber Morley, Jamaal Myers and Ausma Malik.

Bailão added Coun. Frances Nunziata to her list of council endorsements.

And Matlow was endorsed by former Ontario finance minister Greg Sorbara, former city councillor David Soknacki, past president of United Way Anne Golden and long-time street nurse Cathy Crowe.