Toronto's billion-dollar budget gap looms in the background of mayoral byelection

Toronto has money issues. 

That's no secret. This week candidates were pushed to address how they'll fix the city's financial woes. 

The topic came up as the top six polling candidates ran a proverbial gauntlet of debates. Those four events, which amounted to nearly eight hours of head-to-head interactions over two days, gave voters their best look yet at the people vying for the city's top job.

There were some significant endorsements, potential city hall departures because of the snap byelection and more policy to boot.

Here's a glimpse of where things stand after the eighth week of the campaign.

Cash-strapped city in the spotlight

Whoever wins this campaign will have to contend with Toronto's "COVID-19 hangover", as former mayor John Tory dubbed it.

During the pandemic, the city needed to provide more public health services, increased shelter spaces and public transit. Ridership on the TTC bottomed out to record lows, and because the city draws a large portion of the service's operating expenses from the fare box, the financial hole got deeper.

All of that is layered on top of a pre-existing situation experts argue isn't good to begin with. The city now provides a long list of services which were once delivered, and paid for, by upper levels of government. 

Critics of former mayors Rob Ford and Tory argue their policies of constricting services and holding tax increases at or below the rate of inflation for more the last 12 years has only exacerbated the problem. 

No easy solutions to fiscal woes, experts say

With that in mind, the first question candidates got at the Toronto Region Board of Trade debate this week was how they'd solve that fiscal gap.

They all gave it a shot. But it's difficult to cover off in under a minute. 

Olivia Chow said  the city will need a "modest" property tax increase, new revenue streams and a new deal with the province and federal government.

Ana Bailão said the problem can't be solved with property tax increases or cuts and that the province and feds need to come to the table. She also wants the city to upload the Don Valley Parkway and Gardiner Expressway to the provincial government.

Josh Matlow said a provincial ballout isn't coming, so the city will need to take care of the problem by raising property taxes and adopting new revenue tools. 

Mitzie Hunter, who released a budget platform this week that included a six per cent tax increase, said she would ensure Toronto's budget is balanced. That's something the city is required to do by law.

Mark Saunders said he'd stress "value for dollar" in city services and touted his experience as former police chief. He also attacked Olivia Chow and said she'll raise taxes. 

Brad Bradford closed out the session by agreeing that the province and feds need to pick up more of the tab. He pushed his plan to open tendering at city hall to save money. 

Little incentive for details, says councillor

Former city councillor Joe Mihevc said there isn't a lot of incentive to get into the details for the candidates. It's a messy subject with no simple answers and can cost you votes.

Despite that, Mihevc said it is absolutely vital that voters hear how candidates will try to address the budget gap. 

The city needs all of what was said at the debate, he said. That includes property tax increases, new revenue tools and a new fiscal framework with upper levels of government. 

"This is the mature conversation, the adult conversation that we need to have," Mihevc said.

More than that, every promise candidates make has a real-world dollar value attached and any uncosted pledge should be "taken with a grain of salt," he added. 

"The real elephant in the room — in a world where you need to pay for things — is how are you going to basically fund the programs that you want?" Mihevc said.

Zachary Spicer, an associate professor of public policy at York University, said voters will need to press the candidates over the remaining four weeks of the campaign for answers. Whoever wins the race will face difficult choices, he said.

"I think that voters need to understand that any solution to these fiscal challenges has to come from within the house, which means that council has to make these choices," he said.

Labour endorsements pour in for Chow

It was a big week for Olivia Chow on the endorsement front. 

The Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU) Local 113, which represents approximately 12,000 TTC's workers, backed the former NDP MP on Friday. OPSEU, the Elementary Teachers of Toronto, United Steelworkers District 6, ATU Canada, and CUPE Ontario also endorsed Chow.

Gary Crawford moving on from City Hall?

One of the dominos to fall because of this unexpected race is the opening of Mitzie Hunter's provincial riding in Scarborough. Her resignation there to run for mayor may be an opportunity for a prominent city councillor to move to Queen's Park. 

Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party announced this week that Councillor Gary Crawford will be its candidate in the byelection for the riding of Scarborough-Guildwood. Crawford represents a Scarborough ward, is the city's long-time budget chief and was a key ally of former mayor John Tory. 

Policy planks you may have missed

The pace of the policy announcements slowed slightly this week, likely due to the candidates needing more time to prep for the punishing debate schedule. These are some — but far from all — of the ideas pitched. 

Bailão was talking housing, promising to "incentivize intensification, including "missing middle" medium-scale housing that meets needs between condos and single-family homes." To do that, she said she'll champion planning, zoning and land use reforms." She also announced a plan to protect the island airport and its continued operations. 

Matlow made a pledge to support the city's arts culture and help it continue to recover from the pandemic. His plan includes directing a two per cent hike in the hotel tax towards the arts and culture sector.

Anthony Furey promised to audit city hall's finances to see where Toronto could better spend its money. He also pledged to enact a hiring freeze on "non-core services city hall staff." And he announced a traffic management plan, saying he would direct staff to work on the new system using drones downtown to take delivery trucks off the road.

In addition to releasing a costed budget, Hunter introduced a plan improve road safety and cleanliness. She would increase the city's snow budget by 10 per cent, double the pothole maintenance budget and fix dangerous intersections by boosting the city's Vision Zero plan.

Saunders rolled out his plan to address mental health and addictions in the city. He pledged to increase the number of mobile crisis response teams and give free space in unused city-owned building to non-profits providing addictions treatment.