A breakdown of the stunning Tory win in Toronto–St. Paul's
Liberals had held the seat since 1993
Conservative candidate Don Stewart captured the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto–St. Paul's in a byelection Monday that could have far-reaching implications for the Canadian political landscape.
With a federal election looming in 2025, the unexpected Tory win raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future at the helm of the Liberal Party — and whether any Liberal-held seat is truly safe from being flipped.
CBC Toronto's Dwight Drummond sat down with political analyst and polling expert Éric Grenier to break down what the result could portend for next year.
You can watch the full discussion in the player above.
"If they lost Toronto–St. Paul's, there are a lot of ridings around the country that the Liberals could lose that they wouldn't have lost before," Grenier said during the interview, which aired on CBC Toronto's new 24/7 streaming channel.
The Liberals have held the seat since 1993, and won it by considerable margins in every election since then. Voters in Toronto–St. Paul's even stuck by the party in 2011, when the Liberals won just 34 seats nationwide, Grenier pointed out.
If similar trends and swings in vote share were to happen in the city's 24 other ridings, the Liberals would likely lose about half of them, Grenier added.
"There has to be some change in the Liberal party if they have any chance of improving in the polls, their status in the next election, because if they continue this way, there are going to be a lot of Toronto–St. Paul's in 2025," he said.