Kathleen Wynne's NDP gambit in Sudbury

Premier Kathleen Wynne's political calendar for February has two dates circled: the 5th and the 17th.

The latter is the day MPPs return to Queen's Park from their Christmas break and, the former is the date of a provincial byelection she's called in Sudbury.

The dates are linked in Wynne's mind too, because on Feb. 17 she wants Glenn Thibeault sitting on her side of the House as the new MPP for the northern riding — betting that the one-time New Democrat MP's popularity will transcend political labels and that he'll be able to convince voters to send him south to Queen's Park as a Liberal.

In political terms, Thibeault is a "good get" for Wynne and her party. Save and except for federal and provincial New Democrats, it's hard to find anybody with a bad word about him: "popular, helpful, hard-working, great constituency guy," are some of the things I've been told.

Olivier vowed 'not be bullied or bought' and has now decided to fight the Liberal machine.

But in landing him they cut loose their candidate in the June general election, Andrew Olivier. He came within 980 votes of winning the riding against well-known Sudbury city councillor Joe Cimino.

But five months after being elected, family issues forced Cimino to give up his seat in the legislature, prompting the byelection and Olivier to get ready for a second shot at winning.

The premier and her advisers, as it turned out, had other plans after some discussions with Thibeault, who had reportedly made no secret of the fact that he was restless in Ottawa — chafing under the leadership of Tom Mulcair and his policies and willing to explore his political options.

Like a perfect storm, it all came together. A byelection had to be called. The Liberals needed a strong and well-known candidate. Thibeault was available and considered a winner.

So, Olivier was declared political surplus and cast aside, allegedly promised something — though the premier and other Liberals both at Queen's Park and in Sudbury deny it — to stay on the sidelines and out of the byelection.

For a while, he did just that. But Olivier vowed "not be bullied or bought" and has now decided to fight the system and the Liberal machine.

His name will appear on the ballot as an independent and he remains the best candidate, he says, to take Sudbury issues and concerns to Queen's Park.

But it's not only Olivier who stands in the way of what even some Liberals doubt will be Thibeault's February coronation. The byelection ballot will have a long list of credible candidates who can or, have in the past, taken votes away from the Liberals.

Added to that are some unknowns:

• Can Thibeault find Liberals willing to vote for a floor-crossing New Democrat?
• How angry are some Liberals at the treatment Olivier received?
• How many voters in Sudbury are upset that yet again, like so many things in the North, this is an issue being orchestrated in Toronto?

But, it is also true that there are voters in the riding used to having their MPP in cabinet and who would like to see that again.

In his 18 years as a Liberal MPP and cabinet minister, Rick Bartolucci flew home with his fair share of cheques for the riding.

And while he's out of elected politics now, Bartolucci is still important — the centrepiece of the campaign to get Thibeault elected — appearing in a newspaper ad endorsing the one-time New Democrat under the banner "A champion for Sudbury" and "a strong voice" in the Wynne government.

And, that's the subtle message of this byelection: elect Thibeault and your MPP will be at the cabinet table, making decisions about Sudbury and coming home with those cheques, again.

At its core, this byelection — the opposition spells it b-u-y election — is about denying NDP Leader Andrea Horwath the bragging rights of having taken Sudbury away from the Liberals in June and holding onto it this time around.

There's a lot riding on this for Wynne. After all, she picked the candidate and the timing of the vote.

In her personal letter — signed simply "Kathleen" — to everyone in the riding just before Christmas, she makes it clear she's "thrilled" to have Thibeault as her candidate. She said he will always put Sudbury first.

The premier says it's going to be "an exciting" byelection.

But, if the Liberals lose it, her script writers will certainly be searching for other words other words.