Could N.B. election results happen on P.E.I.?

P.E.I. politicians are paying close attention to election results Monday night in neighbouring New Brunswick. 

In N.B., the Progressive Conservatives won 22 seats to the incumbent Liberals' 21 in a legislature requiring 25 for a majority. The Green Party and People's Alliance each won three seats. There's now a power struggle to see which party will govern.

I don't necessarily think you can take what happened in New Brunswick and transpose that on top of P.E.I.— Scott Barry, P.E.I. Liberal Party

"They need to watch this very carefully. It shows a volatility in the electorate that we've not seen before, or haven't seen for a while. And that could very well be just as much here as in New Brunswick," said Don Desserud, who teaches political science at UPEI.

"I wouldn't say entrenched voting is gone, but it's being chipped away at, it's being eroded.  There does seem to be a substantial number of voters who are willing to engage in other parties," observed Desserud. 

'This can happen' on P.E.I.

P.E.I. has already elected two Green Party members and in the latest political poll the Greens came out on top — both unprecedented in P.E.I. history.  

"Is that going to translate into something substantial in the next election? Well it's not going to be nothing," predicted Desserud. "Something is going to happen and there's going to be a result quite unprecedented in this province.

"The idea that voters with entrenched voting habits would always vote for the same parties is becoming less and less the case election after election." 

Desserud said he can foresee a scenario in which P.E.I.'s Liberals and PCs elect the same number of seats, if the PCs bring in a strong new leader. And if the Greens continue their strong performance and elect three or four MLAs, it would then hold the balance of power — the votes that can make or break the passing of new legislation.

"That would be really interesting because there is no experience with that," said Desserud. 

'Climate has changed here'

P.E.I. Green Party Leader Peter Bevan-Baker helped campaign in New Brunswick, where the party won three seats — two of them unexpectedly, Desserud points out. 

"It does show the Green Party label, the brand, is strong and people are respecting it," said Desserud.

Bevan-Baker said he thinks more Canadians are now willing to explore political options beyond the traditional Liberal red and Tory blue.

"It's obvious the climate has changed here, and the possibility of a minority government absolutely exists," said Bevan-Baker. "I don't think that's something we need to be frightened of. Minority governments can govern really well and solidly, and do good work."

Bevan-Baker said he believes moving to a proportional representation electoral model would give minority governments more stability. 

'Dynamics are different' on P.E.I.

P.E.I.'s Liberal Party president had a very different take on the results, pointing out that the Liberals still captured 37.8 per cent of the popular vote in N.B. Monday night, almost six per cent more than the Conservatives. 

"I don't necessarily think you can take what happened in New Brunswick and transpose that on top of P.E.I., and say that's an indicator of what we should expect in the next general election," said Scott Barry.

Barry said he believes the N.B. election was a result of the emergence of the People's Alliance, the way the popular vote broke down between northern and southern regions and the divisive issue of bilingualism.

"It doesn't surprise me that's the sort of narrative Mr. Bevan-Baker would like to feed into," Barry said. "I do think the dynamics are different. And I guess time will tell."

CBC asked the PC Party for comment but did not receive a response as of publication time. 

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