'This may not last long': political scientist predicts return to polls by Christmas

The morning after the closest election New Brunswick has seen in nearly a century, bleary-eyed political scientist Mario Levesque was not optimistic that either the Liberals or the Progressive Conservatives will form a long-term government.

"We may be back at the polls within six months and definitely two years," Levesque, who teaches at Mount Allison University, told Information Morning Moncton.

The Progressive Conservatives won 22 seats on Monday compared to 21 for the Liberals, and three each for the Green Party and the People's Alliance.

Both the Progressive Conservatives and the incumbent Liberals hope to form a government and both Brian Gallant and Blaine Higgs said they would visit the lieutenant-governor Tuesday morning to make their case.

Later Tuesday morning, Lt.-Gov. Jocelyne Roy Vienneau gave Gallant first crack at trying to govern and win the confidence of the legislature.

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Levesque said the Liberals must resign or be dismissed by the lieutenant-governor in order for the Progressive Conservatives to step in, but with only one seat between the parties, that is unlikely.

"Brian Gallant lost by one seat," Levesque said. "However, he has the right to meet the legislature and try to form a government.

"He has the right to … try to gain the confidence of the house, so if he can't do that and they vote down his speech from the throne or his budget, then the lieutenant-governor would look around and say, 'OK, is there someone else here that can maybe form a government?' And then she would likely turn to Mr. Higgs."

Minority government 'may not last long'

Levesque expects New Brunswickers will be back at the polls sooner rather than later.

We're not going long term with either the PCs or the Liberals in this situation.- Mario Levesque

"Minority governments don't last more than 18 months to two years typically,  and this one is even more challenging because there's no clear coalition for a minority, so I could see us going back to the polls before Christmas," he said.

"We're not going long term with either the PCs or the Liberals in this situation."

Part of the challenge is that even if the Progressive Conservatives form a coalition with the People's Alliance, and the Liberals with the Green Party, neither party would have a majority of 25 seats after a speaker is appointed.

"So all of the sudden you have real challenges here in trying to govern," Levesque said. "It looks like it'll be on an issue by issue basis so by that I mean they're going to have a vote on the budget … and it'll be a very, specified budget to try to get the support of the other people from the other parties and this may not last long at all."

Levesque said even if the government doesn't last, voters have sent a "strong message" that they are not happy with either the Progressive Conservatives or the Liberals and they want more voices in the legislature.

"They want to see a different kind of politics, a more compromising politics and more understanding politics as well and to get away from the old divisions so we'll see where that goes."