Weather forecasters predict one of Ottawa's warmest winters ever

Despite today's snowfall, climatologists and other weather scientists are still marvelling at the unusually warm winter, including a Christmas Eve that smashed local records across Ontario and Quebec.

• From ponds to patios, Ottawans make most of warm winter weather

"It's been like winter is missing in action," said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada. "I've been in this business four decades and this is about the biggest head-shaker I've ever seen; it's quite an amazing situation."

It's like winter is missing in action.-David Phillips Environment Canada

He said even when you consider places like Quebec City, Sudbury and Sault St Marie, this is not a normal winter.

Phillips said residents of Eastern Canada can expect a shorter winter, cycling between freezing and warmer temperatures.

"It'll be shorter, and more of a flip flop. There will be days you wish you were somewhere else, but it will be up and down, and harder to sustain snow and ice," he said.

Blame a 'super' El Nino

He noted some may be relieved to find it much less painful compared to the previous two brutal winters. Phillips credits a 'super' El Nino, which has already helped create the warmest year on record, for delaying winter.

El Nino develops in the equatorial Pacific when unusually warm waters combine with a shift in atmospheric circulation, affecting weather patterns around the world.

It kicks in when temperatures rise half a degree above normal, but this year, the temperatures rose three degrees — a condition not seen since 2010, according to Phillips.

This year Ottawa, "the snowiest capital" in the world and the third coldest capital in the world, according to Phillips, had seen just 0.6 centimetres of snow before Sunday's snowfall. Normally there would be about 76 cm by now, he added.

On Christmas Eve, temperatures in the capital soared to 17 C, which was warmer than June 28, 2015, according to CBC Ottawa climatologist Ian Black.

Phillips said the number of white Christmases has declined over the last 60 years in southern Ontario and Quebec, which he blames on climate change.

According to an analysis by the Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources, the average minimum temperatures rose twice as much in winter in Ottawa than summer months between 1890 and 2010, rising by 3.9 C.

There has, at the same time, been a decrease in winter precipitation during the same period by 44 millimetres. The Centre suggests the ski season could shorten by 32 per cent by mid-century.

Warm winter could spell disaster for crops

Still, this year's unprecedented delay of winter may have an especially important impact on next spring and summer crops, including fruit and nut bearing trees.

"If the changes are long term, it could be disastrous for any number of crops," said David Sugarman, Life Sciences researcher at the Ontario Science Centre. 

Premature buds can be devastating for fruit trees, according to Sugarman, who's been hearing from people across southern Ontario and Quebec about trees and plants beginning to bud, "and that can be bad news."

Right now, the days are short, and plants are also affected by light, but as the days get longer, if temperatures rise and fall with no snow on the ground to protect plants hibernating in the soil, it can spell real problems for next spring, said Sugarman.

This doesn't mean winter is cancelled.- David Phillips Environment Canada

Still, Phillips makes clear winter will happen and it will simply be shorter following two very difficult winters in 2013 and 2014.

But in the long term, climate change will likely affect our Canadian winter more than any other season, he added.

"Whether winter is our longest season or becomes one of our shortest, that could become the new normal," said Phillips.