Spring flood and wildfire risk relatively low across Yukon, gov't says

The risk of serious floods or wildfires in Yukon this spring appears to be relatively low, according to the territorial government — though officials also warn that weather can quickly change everything.

Representatives from the territory's Emergency Measures Organization (EMO), wildland fire management, and the water resources branch gave a technical briefing on Thursday about flood and fire risk in the coming weeks.

The past two summers have seen significant flooding in some parts of the territory, with some areas under evacuation orders or alerts for weeks at a time. In 2021, the Canadian military was called in to help respond. 

"Low flood potential doesn't mean no flood potential, but in the context of the past two years, it certainly looks like it's going to be much quieter from that perspective," said Anthony Bier, a hydrologist with the territory's water resources branch, said at Thursday's briefing.

Bier said the snow pack across the territory is average to above-average right now, but so far there are no signs that a rapid melt will happen in the next few weeks as the weather is expected to be cooler than average. That means the flood potential from spring freshet is considered low across the territory.

Still, officials say there is "moderate" potential for certain highways to be affected by high water flows in the coming weeks, including parts of the North Alaska Highway, the North Klondike Highway and the Dempster Highway.

Ice jams are the greater potential concern this year, Bier said — though the flood risk from ice jams is still considered low for most areas. The exceptions are the Nordenskiold River at Carmacks and the Porcupine River at Old Crow, where the potential for ice-jam flooding is considered moderate, and the Klondike River at Dawson City and Rock Creek, where the potential is considered moderate to high.

"Breakup is something we're always vigilant for," said Bier.

"Breakup can surprise us, there's always the potential for significant ice jamming if the weather comes together in the right way."

Groundwater flooding could also be a concern for some residents whose properties are close to the water table, Bier said. Groundwater levels are higher than usual across most of the territory.

"Ice breakup and high groundwater are the two things definitely highlighted today, that we're monitoring and preparing for. The ultimate wild card really is the weather, and the weather can change all of those things instantly," said EMO director Greg Blackjack at the briefing. 

Blackjack encouraged people whose properties are susceptible to groundwater flooding to take some precautions, such as installing a sump pump or clearing snow away and downhill from the house.  

Wildfire risk low until June, then 'all bets are off'

Wildfire risk in the Yukon is also likely to be low for at least the next month, officials said.

That's because weather forecasts suggests a slow and steady snow melt. Wildfire risk increases when a spell of warm spring weather melts the snow quickly, and dries the forest fuel.

"[We're] pretty confident that we won't really have much of a fire issue, if any, until early to mid-June at the earliest. But after that, all bets are off," said Mike Smith of Yukon Wildland Fire Management.

"We just don't have the ability or skill to predict really beyond that."

Last summer was a busy one for wildland firefighters in Yukon. By early July, the territory had seen a historic number of fires, with total burned areas surpassing the 25-year average. There were fire bans, evacuation alerts and highway closures. The territorial government was urging tourists to rethink their Yukon travel plans. 

This year, the territory has introduced a new online hub which aims to make it easier for people to find information about wildfires and their potential impacts, including smoke advisories and highway delays. The tool improves on the online wildfire map used last year, the government says.