Climate change could significantly affect Yukon's landscape — and people — in 50 years, report states

Yukon could see much warmer winters, more precipitation and treelines moving to higher latitudes because of climate change, according to a new report out of Yukon University. 

Drawing on research since 2015, when the university last conducted a literature review on the issue, the report states temperatures in the territory could jump between 0.7 to 3.7 degrees in the next 50 years, enough to drastically alter ways of life.

"The major climate change hazards in the Yukon are flood, wildfire, damage to infrastructure from thawing permafrost, and/or extreme precipitation," states the report, noting that infrastructure not built with climate in mind is vulnerable. 

Annual precipitation is projected to increase from 13 to 17 per cent over the next 50 years, the report states; and fire could become more severe, though conditions oscillate widely from year-to-year. 

Alison Perrin, lead author of the report, said a growing body of Yukon-based research is helping to provide a clearer picture of what climate change could look like in the not-so-distant future. 

However, there are some issues requiring more analysis, she noted — not just the amount of emissions released into the atmosphere or infrastructure impacts but also social effects, including mental health and access to country food.

While there's more research delving into the connection between climate change and health — a departure from other previous reviews the university has done — Perrin said she wants more of it focused on the Yukon, where many people rely on subsistence harvesting.

At the same time, she said the territory needs to continue to pivot toward adaptation — how it's going to prepare for what's likely to come.

"When there are extreme weather events or there are supply chain issues or there are challenges accessing the land, those are things that can impact parts of our population harder than others," Perrin said. "So, ensuring that there are supports for low income Yukoners or people that are strongly connected to the land like Yukon First Nations and making sure that they have access to what they need."

'Can't keep tracking the train wreck' 

Chrystal Mantyka-Pringle, a conservation planning biologist with the Wildlife Conservation Society — which reviewed the report — said the Yukon is at a tipping point. She notes consistently dismal salmon runs and northward movement of endemic plants, which could decline by upward of 20 per cent in the next 40 years because of climate change.

While monitoring efforts and statistics are important, they're not everything, Mantyka-Pringle said.

"We can't just keep documenting the train wreck," she said. "We have to be more proactive."

An example is folding reports like the one Yukon University did into regional land use planning, said Mantyka-Pringle, adding that it underscores the need for carbon loss to be measured. 

"We need to know what we're losing, versus what we're gaining for development and mining."