Battleground Newfoundland and Labrador: The ridings to watch
The factors that could determine who represents Newfoundland and Labrador's 7 ridings
With a few days before election day, the question I'm asked the most is "how are the races going to turn out?"
I'm not a pollster, and I'm as ready as anyone else for surprises on Monday night, but there are a few clues in each of the close races.
Here are the things I'm keeping an eye on.
St. John's South-Mount Pearl
This is likely to be the tightest race, and is a local example of the fight for the "change vote" that's playing out across the country. This is a race that insiders in both the Liberal and NDP camps think they can win. Early in race, the NDP candidate Ryan Cleary had the edge as the incumbent, as well as nationally strong numbers for the NDP showing Tom Mulcair could become Prime Minister.
After a misstep in the CBC Radio debate, in which Cleary attacked Liberal Seamus O'Regan for living away just minutes after saying he wouldn't, and particularly the rebound of the Liberals nationally, this race is competitive again.
This week's MQO/NTV poll has O'Regan and Cleary in a statistical dead heat. I'm expecting this is the last result we'll get in Newfoundland and Labrador. Liberal Siobhan Coady blames her loss to Cleary in 2011 to the national surge that the NDP then enjoyed under Jack Layton.
This time it may be the opposite. With the possibility rising that the Liberals may form the government, and with national NDP support sliding from just a few weeks ago, some "anybody but Conservative" voters may decide to move their vote to the Liberals this time.
The messages from Cleary and O'Regan have been noticeably different. Cleary has run on the "fighting Newfoundlander" persona that's he's cultivated over the years. O'Regan has focused more on his party's national platform, trying to sell why the Liberals would do more to help people in the riding. On Monday, we'll find out which message was more compelling to voters.
The Conservatives used to hold this riding in its earlier incarnations, but with Ontario reality TV personality Marek Krol running, they're not a factor this time.
Avalon
Scott Andrews won this riding as a Liberal last time, but whether he can win it again as an Independent is the real question. The allegations of sexual misconduct that forced him out of the party loom large over this campaign.
Some voters are upset Andrews has never specified the behaviour that got him booted, while others feel Andrews never got a fair chance to address the anonymous allegations and are willing to back him.
The only public poll earlier in the campaign shows the Liberals with a strong lead. Liberal insiders feel that their current candidate Ken McDonald will be able keep the majority of the Liberal vote.
Andrews feels confident he's in the lead. A lot of this discrepancy may come from the fact there are significant regional differences in this riding.
It's important to note in the latest redistribution that Andrews lost the western part of the Avalon, where his support was strong, while part of Paradise was added on. That means about 20 per cent of the voters are new.
McDonald is the mayor of Conception Bay South, so expect him to do well in the suburban areas of C.B.S. and neighbouring Paradise, while Andrews will get the bulk of his support from the rural areas.
In 2011, the Conservatives had a strong showing — and with the new boundaries would have even won. This time is very different, though. Back then, the Tories had Fabian Manning (the former and future senator) on the ballot, while this time, Lorraine Barnett, a political staffer, is the candidate. The party drew controversy by refusing to let lawyer Ches Crosbie run for them. Barnett's lack of name recognition and the public rebuking from former federal cabinet minister John Crosbie has hobbled the party.
You can listen to the CBC Radio debate for Avalon riding here.
St. John's East
Last time Jack Harris won this seat for the NDP with one of the largest percentages in the country, at just over 70 per cent of the vote. Don't expect Harris to do as well this time, but he'd have to lose half of his voters for the Liberals to pull out a win. This is Harris's race to lose.
With a Liberal surge across the country, insiders hope to do far better than the third-place showing in 2011. Even a week ago, Liberals figured a victory was a long shot at best, but late this week the Liberals claimed Nick Whalen was just shy of Harris.
Whalen has run a high-profile campaign but even if the NDP do poorly across the country on Monday, Harris is can rely on his own local popularity after almost three decades in politics in this province.
On election night, if for some reason the Liberals do manage to take this riding, it would be a very grim sign for the NDP's chances across the country.
You can listen to CBC Radio's St. John's East debate below.
Across the province
Going into the campaign, the remaining four seats — Labrador, Long Range Mountains, Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame and Bonavista-Burin-Trinity — were held by the Liberals. The party did well in this province's rural ridings in the last election, even when the Liberals were stuck in third place nationally.
Now that the party is flirting with first, it only helps the party secure re-election in these seats.
In Labrador, Conservative Peter Penashue's sales pitch — that constituents need someone on the government side — is less persuasive when who will form government is up in the air. After all, the argument is just as strong a reason to vote Liberal at this point. Penashue scored a historic upset in 2011, but lost to Liberal Yvonne Jones in a subsequent byelection. The dynamic has not changed dramatically since then.
Liberals Scott Simms (Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame) and Judy Foote (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity) are popular in their respective ridings, with each getting more than 50 per cent of the vote last time. The party expects a similarly strong result this time. Simms is being challenged by former provincial Tory minister Kevin O'Brien, one of the few well-known local Conservatives to step up for this year's campaign.
Gudie Hutchings is the new Liberal candidate in Long Range Mountains and she comes with the blessing of outgoing MP Gerry Byrne, who's still widely popular. She is considered to have an excellent shot to replace him.
The polls in Newfoundland and Labrador will close half an hour before anywhere else. We may not know who will form the government until the wee hours of Tuesday morning but the results here could set the tone for the rest of the night.
It will be interesting to watch the results come in.
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