Canada prepares for a rise in border crossings with threat of mass deportations under Trump
Majority crossed at Quebec's Roxham Road after 2017. Community groups are readying for another increase
Donald Trump's promise to begin deporting undocumented immigrants as soon as he takes office in January has groups who work with newcomers preparing for a possible increase in people making their way across the Canadian border.
The mere threat of mass deportation could lead to a rise in both asylum claims at official ports of entry and attempts to make clandestine crossings into Canada, said Jennifer Elrick, an associate professor of sociology at McGill University who studies immigration policy.
Overall, the second Trump presidency could have a "profound impact on Canada's borders," Elrick said.
There was a surge in arrivals in the months after Trump took power in 2017.
Starting in the summer of that year, thousands of people crossed into Canada, primarily at Roxham Road, near Hemmingford, Que.
A more dangerous journey
Now, crossing is more difficult. Roxham Road was closed after Canada and the U.S. changed the Safe Third Country Agreement last year, expanding its terms to cover the entire land border rather than just formal crossings.
That expansion put an end to Roxham Road as an end-run around that system. In the months since, there have been far fewer interceptions by the RCMP — and more asylum claims at the airport and official land borders.
Melissa Claisse, who works at the Montreal-based Welcome Collective, said her group will be ready if Quebec becomes a destination for people fleeing the U.S. The collective was established to help those who crossed in 2017.
She also worries the closure of Roxham Road will lead more people to attempt dangerous crossings through wooded areas.
"It's very possible we're going to see people in remote areas in mid-winter, and we've already seen people dying in situations like that," said Claisse, the group's communications co-ordinator.
RCMP on alert
The Mounties have been preparing for months for that possibility in the event of a Trump victory, said RCMP Sgt. Charles Poirier, who is based in Montreal.
"We're ready with different types of scenarios, whether it be just a few individuals or a massive influx," Poirier said in an interview.
Authorities have recently seen an increase in illegal crossings south from Canada to the U.S., and Poirier said the RCMP is concerned they could see more people travelling the other way.
"If people start crossing everywhere on the territory like the southbound are doing, that is going to be much more difficult," he said.
"It's going to be a complete game changer because those people will still have to be brought to a central facility. But our officers, we'll be running across the territory to catch them."
Following Trump's win, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said the federal government has a "plan to ensure" the border is secure.
"I want to assure Canadians that we absolutely recognize the importance of border security and of controlling our own border," she said. In 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced criticism from opposition politicians for tweeting #WelcometoCanada after Trump's immigration crackdown.
Election fallout
The prospect of more migrants quickly became a talking point in Quebec, as well. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon warned that millions of people might consider moving north following Trump's election.
Premier François Legault followed by saying he would press Trudeau to "make sure he protects the border."
Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in downtown Montreal, said he doesn't expect a huge influx of refugees overnight.
"Whatever Trump will enact, we will not see the remnants probably for another year," he said. As it stands, he said, the majority of people who come to his centre claim asylum after arriving at the airport.
The biggest obstacle they face, he said, is the long wait for a work permit.
Elrick said more people coming across the border — without claiming asylum — could lead to a greater number of undocumented people in Canada.
She noted there is no accurate count of how many undocumented immigrants live in Canada, though researchers have estimated as many as 500,000 people are without status.
Regardless of whether Trump follows through on his promised deportations, Elrick said there will need to be a bigger discussion about "how we plan to manage this form of migration that hasn't been at the top of our radar historically."
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With files from Jorge Barrera and Vanessa Lee