Campaign promises: Checking on fact, fiction and everything in between in the lead-up to Manitoba election

In the weeks since the start of the 42nd Manitoba general election, political parties have been busy canvassing neighbourhoods province-wide, promoting their platforms and attempting to sway voters with promises of additional services, tax cuts and more money on the kitchen table.

The CBC's fact checking team has been keeping close track of those announcements⁠ — about 100 in total since the campaign officially began on Aug. 12.

Some of the promises bordered on the puzzling, like when NDP Leader Wab Kinew promised two-hour free parking at hospitals, even though the province doesn't have jurisdiction over many of the parking spots in these areas.

Other promises seemed unlikely given historic trends, such as the Progressive Conservative pledge to create 40,000 new private-sector jobs over four years. The NDP made a similar claim a few days later, but this time upped the ante to 50,000 jobs.

Over the course of a series of back-and-forths with party officials, it was discovered that those proposed jobs were not what they seemed.

The general public could be forgiven for understanding a "job" to mean — well, a full-time job for a single person over a period of time.

But in the context of these announcements, parties were actually talking about "job-years" — an economic measure where a single person holding a job for five years would count as five unique jobs.

• What's been promised so far by Manitoba's political parties

At times statements were easily debunked, such as claims by the NDP that emergency room wait times are getting worse (if you cherry-pick recent months, they have been getting worse, but the overall picture shows an improvement). 

Other statements, however, are harder to prove or disprove.

Take, for example, the NDP claims that there are 500 fewer nurses working in the province since the PCs took power.

The Canadian Institute for Health Information reported this figure in June, but then later clarified it lacked context. Meanwhile, the WRHA claimed its numbers showed a slight increase in nursing staff (but that didn't count staffing in other regional health authorities), then add to that the nurses union saying its own reporting shows a drop in registered members.

Which version of the facts is the correct one?

Misleading logic games

One of the most fascinating statements came from PC Leader Brian Pallister, who said during the televised leaders debate that this year alone, his government was "investing more in health care than the NDP government ever did" in a single year.

While this claim is measurable and technically true — health spending for this year is budgeted at $6.65 billion, an amount that is over $400 million more than the NDP ever spent — it is by design misleading and disingenuous.

Because inflation and cost of living continuously increase, all governments can generally lay claim to spending more than their predecessors.

It's worth noting that if the PCs' health spending was indexed to inflation, it would show lower spending increases than under the NDP.

A dearth of information makes fact-checking difficult as a reporter. On the flip side, if you're a political party, giving away too much information can make you a target.

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The NDP were among the first out of the gate with a fully costed platform. The result: the PCs used this to poke holes and relentlessly ridicule their proposed fiscal position throughout the campaign. The PCs, on the other hand, declined to release any costed budget details until the very end.

Keeping up with all the claims made on the campaign trail requires an army of researchers and reporters working round the clock, and there's no doubt some dubious statements or questionable promises made their way to the public without getting the scrutiny they deserved.

Ultimately, an informed public is the key to a democracy that functions well — and that's a responsibility we all shoulder.

The 42nd general election will be held on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019.

• Full coverage of the 2019 Manitoba election

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