Ontario's trucking industry faces change, uncertainty despite delayed tariff threats

The association representing trucking companies in Ontario says truckers across the province are bracing for what might come, even though a Canada-U.S. trade war has been temporarily averted.

While a pause in action and a return to negotiations for both economies is currently underway, some truckers are concerned over financial pressures that may come if those negotiations fail, while others are optimistic they can weather the storm.

"The imposition of 25% tariffs would cripple a trucking industry that's been, specifically in Ontario, beleaguered by a depressing freight market and skyrocketing costs," said Marco Beghetto, a spokesperson for the Ontario Trucking Association.

The tariffs threatened for weeks by U.S. President Donald Trump were [aised fpr 30 days after Canada made a series of commitments to improve security along the border.

Trump's threats largely centred around a perceived lack of security on the Canada-U.S. border, including the smuggling of illegal drugs like fentanyl.

While there was relief to be found in Monday's news, what comes down the line will determine the fate of some trucking companies that are facing tight finances and may not survive a further drop in business, Beghetto said.

Major concerns that would make the impact of tariffs stronger include a market for freight transportation that Bhegetto estimates may be near a three-decade low, labour and fuel costs increasing, and more, he said.

However, while there are concerns, there are opportunities as well, Beghetto added.

"We're hoping for the best, but in the meantime, Canada needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario. There's a whole host of inter-provincial trade barriers that act as disincentives for trading within the province," Beghetto said. "There are [also] a host of trucking regulations, whether it's weights and dimensions, whether it's rules of what products you can transport between provinces, that could come under review to reduce these barriers."

Those are concerns federal officials have already taken note of recently. Regulations that are often criticized as barriers to trade between Canadian provinces could all be dismantled within a month, said federal transport minister Anita Anand on Wednesday.

Stockpiling, demand changes expected

For small trucking companies, the only move is to wait and see what happens, said to Trevor Wideman, the operations manager at West Coast Transportation in London, Ont.

The company has a fleet of roughly 15 vehicles and makes deliveries primarily to and from Canada and the U.S., and to and from western Canada and Ontario.

"Are we concerned? Yes, but there's nothing we can do about it. We have to sit back and see what gets applied," Wideman said.

The cool-headed wait-and-see approach isn't totally understood by everyone, he said. In the time leading up to the now-abolished Tuesday tariff deadline, customers urged his company to complete international deliveries before the tariffs began.

In terms of expectations for what might come whether tariffs come or not, Wideman believes much like during the last Trump presidency when tariffs were applied to aluminium and steel, businesses are likely to stockpile goods and take advantage of favourable exchange rates while they can.

"January and February generally are slower times in the freight business. I predict February is now going to become busier, especially with exports to the United States," Wideman said. "American companies will be buying and stockpiling because their dollar is strong compared to ours. It's a screaming deal to shop in Canada for them."

That means a jump in cross-border routes until tariffs arrive, followed by a reversal.

Wideman noted an increase in business headed east and west rather than south across the border is likely to continue, considering the buy-Canadian mindset that's taking hold in the wake of U.S. threats.