'Enormous' London growth has TVDSB looking at shuffling students to other schools

In a little more than two years, there will be more elementary students than the Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB) has spaces for, creating an enrolment crunch that will force the board to consider moving students around to spread the growth evenly between schools.

"The challenge is enormous, this rapid growth is really tough to manage," said Geoff Vogt, the TVDSB's superintendent of capital planning and facilities. "We have a great community that people want to live in, but certainly growth comes with challenges." 

A report by Watson & Associates economists coming to the board's trustees meeting on Tuesday paints a picture of a board challenged by overcapacity at some schools while growth continues to surge, particularly near the city limits in north, west and southwest London. 

The report lays out suggested options to address the capacity challenges. In some cases, it calls for changes in school catchment areas that could prove controversial and disruptive for students, parents and staff. 

Over the past five years, the board's enrolment of elementary students has jumped by about 11 per cent, from 50,892 to 56,621. The country as a whole saw just a 1 per cent growth in the number of 5- to 19-year-olds between 2016 to 2020. 

The report says London's growth will exceed elementary school spaces — known as on-the-ground capacity — in London's public board by 2023/24.

The Education Ministry has approved two new schools for London, which will help address the need: One in the southeast neighbourhood of Summerside is slated to open in September. A second approved school in northwest London is slated to be ready by 2025/26. Two schools proposed — one in Byron, another in Lambeth — have yet to be approved for funding by the province.

With new schools not coming fast enough to meet enrollment demands, the report recommends spreading the student population between existing schools so the spaces are used efficiently. 

For example, the report calls for Eagle Heights PS to send its Grade 6 and 7 students south to Victoria PS, which would free up space by sending some students to Wortley Road PS. But even with this change, Eagle Heights will be at 129 per cent capacity and still require 10 portables. But without the changes, the report says Eagle Heights will be at 160 per cent capacity by the start of the school year in 2023.

At St. George PS in north London, the report says future growth will push the school to 147 per cent capacity and recommends sending students in the southern end of its catchment area (south of Dufferin Ave.) to Aberdeen PS in the short term. Later, when the new school in northwest London can take students currently attending Ryerson PS, students at the north end of St. George's attendance area will be shifted to Ryerson. 

And while these and other recommendations help spread student spaces across London schools, the changes would have an impact on students, staff and parents. 

Max Lowther is a parent with a daughter in Grade 1 at University Heights PS. Changes recommended in a separate report to address overcrowding at Sir Arthur Currie PS call for sending new arrivals in that school's attendance area to University Heights. Another option floated would be to send those students further east to Knollwood Park PS. 

Lowther is concerned that adding students, while helping ease capacity challenges in north London, will put pressure on his daughter and her classmates. 

"We love this school and we worry if more students come here, that's going to get disrupted," said Lowther. "Getting your child in and out of the school safety in the morning is going to be a challenge." 

Vogt said board staff are aware that shifting students around is disruptive, but said it sometimes can't be helped. 

"We never take the work of proposing boundary changes and moving students around lightly," he said. "But at the end of the day, we do have to look at what is needed in the whole." 

The report will come before trustees for information on Tuesday but they won't be making any decisions this week. The report will be followed by extensive consultation before any students are moved, Vogt said.