No local ridings are slam dunk wins in this federal election, these experts say

With the federal election on Monday, there are several local races that could result in change in the next government.

For Tamara Small, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph, the most interesting races will be where there's no incumbent seeking re-election.

"That's where the real fun is," she said in an interview. "Those are fun to watch."

In Waterloo region, there are two races without incumbents: Kitchener Centre, where Liberal Raj Saini ended his campaign for re-election although his name remains on the ballot, and Kitchener South-Hespeler, where MP Marwan Tabbara serves for now. Tabbara left the Liberal caucus after being charged with assault, break-and-enter and harassment in the spring of 2020.

But while those two ridings may seem like obvious choices for must watch races, the experts CBC Kitchener-Waterloo spoke to say none of the incumbents should be sitting back thinking they've won their riding just yet.

Four federal leaders visited Waterloo region in the week leading up to the election: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Tuesday, Green Leader Annamie Paul on Wednesday, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau on Friday and Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole on Saturday.

And what happens in Waterloo region might just forecast what will happen across the country, says Simon Kiss, an associate professor of digital media and journalism at Wilfrid Laurier University and director of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP).

In a report released earlier this year by LISPOP looking at local voter intention months before the federal election was called, researchers showed that since 2003, in both provincial and federal elections, 50 per cent or more of the politicians voted into office in Waterloo region were part of the governing party.

"Waterloo region is a bellwether region. As Waterloo region votes, so votes the country," Kiss said.

"The Liberals swept Waterloo region in 2015 and 2019 and the Conservatives swept Waterloo region in 2008, and they won four out of five seats in 2011. So, it's a bellwether region."

Kitchener Centre: 'Most interesting seat'

Kitchener Centre is perhaps the most hotly contested seat in this election, says Andrea Perella, an associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University's and a researcher at the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP).

"This is a very, very interesting seat and I think it's the most interesting seat in all of Canada," he said.

This past week, three party leaders came to the riding to stump for local candidates: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Tuesday, Green Leader Annamie Paul on Wednesday and Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole on Saturday.

Right now, it appears to be a toss-up between Conservative Mary Heinen Thorn, NDP candidate Beisan Zubi and Green candidate Mike Morrice. Morrice, is hoping to capitalize on his efforts in 2019, which saw him move the Green party from fourth place in 2015 to second.

Saini may have dropped out of the race, but he is still on the ballot which means he is also still technically in play, Perella said. If Saini were to win, he could either sit as an independent MP or step down, which would force a byelection.

Peter Woolstencroft, a retired political science professor from the University of Waterloo and self described "geek" when it comes to elections, agrees that he'll be keeping an eye on Kitchener Centre Monday night into Tuesday morning.

"Ordinarily, it would be seen as a Liberal riding that occasionally goes Conservative ... provincially it's NDP," he said.

"So the question is: Of the 20,000 Liberal votes last time [in 2019], where will they go? Will they go to the Conservatives or will they go to the Green party?"

He said Liberal voters are unlikely to vote Conservative, but they may also be aware of the struggles within the Green party — "most people are aware that the Green party has been impaling itself with fights over its leadership" — and so they may also look to the NDP.

"I think it's clearly up in the air and I would say that of the many ridings in the country, that's one that has a very great interest from within our region," he said. "Most people who follow these things will be looking at Kitchener Centre and wondering, where do all those Liberals go?"

Kitchener-Conestoga: Close races

Kitchener-Conestoga could also be an interesting one to watch because of the close races there in 2019 and 2015.

Liberal Tim Louis beat incumbent Conservative Harold Albrecht in 2019 by a narrow margin of 365 votes, 20,480 votes to 20,115. Albrecht had been the MP since 2006.

In 2015, Albrecht narrowly defeated Louis when there was a 251 vote difference between them.

This time around, Louis is back as the incumbent and he faces Conservative Carlene Hawley. Hawley has been criticized by her fellow candidates, including Louis and Owen Bradley from the Greens, for not attending local debates –   although she did take part in the Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chamber of Commerce debate – and also for her silence about anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ groups in the riding.

CBC Kitchener-Waterloo reached out to Hawley's campaign on four separate occasions to request an interview or comment on the accusations by the other candidates in the riding. The campaign did not provide an interview or comment on the matter.

Also running in Kitchener-Conestoga are Narine Dat Sookram for the NDP, who also previously ran to be mayor of Kitchener in 2018, and Kevin Dupuis for the People's Party of Canada, a former trustee with the Waterloo Catholic District School Board. He resigned in May of this year.

Woolstencroft says it's an interesting riding because geographically, it has a segment of Kitchener as well as three of the region's townships: Woolwich, Wellesley and Wilmot. The two areas are very different politically, he says.

"I've driven around the countryside of the riding. There's hardly a sign for the Liberals, but there's a lot of Conservative signs," he said. "But once you get into the city, the Kitchener part, it's a different ballgame and there's different types of people, different interests."

Kiss says he, too, will be keeping an eye on this riding.

"Kitchener-Conestoga is a swing seat, so that's going to be very interesting to watch," he said. "Kitchener-Conestoga is a big prize for the Conservatives and it's a want-to-hold for the Liberals."

Kitchener South-Hespeler: No incumbent

The only MP to ever serve in this riding is not running in this election. The riding of Kitchener South-Hespeler was formed in 2015 and then-Liberal Marwan Tabbara won the seat.

He left the Liberals and sat as an independent in the spring of 2020 after facing charges of assault, break-and-enter and harassment. His case remains before the courts. 

There are eight candidates in this riding.

Kitchener-South Hespeler would be a "a prize for the Conservatives" if candidate Tyler Calver were to win, Kiss says.

To show his support, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau made a stop in the riding on Friday to rally for Liberal candidate Valerie Bradford.

Also running in Kitchener South-Hespeler are: Suresh Arangath of the NDP, Gabe Rose of the Greens and four other candidates: Elaine Baetz of the Marxist-Leninist party, Melissa Baumgaertner of the People's Party, Stephen Davis of the Rhinoceros Party and independent candidate C.A. Morrison.

Davis explained in an interview his campaign for the satirical Rhino party, "represents the humour in our electoral process."

Cambridge and Waterloo: Not so safe?

Woolstencroft says "there's a strong Conservative base" in Cambridge that could upset the re-election bid of Liberal Bryan May. 

"And it has been a Conservative seat not too long ago," he said.

In fact, since its creation in 1979, the riding has mostly been held by Conservatives. Progressive Conservative Chris Speyer was the first MP for the riding, holding the seat from 1979 to 1988 when he was replaced by Progressive Conservative Pat Sobeski, who held the seat until 1993.

In 1993, Liberal Janko Peric won the riding and held the seat until 2004. That's when Conservative Gary Goodyear won the seat. Goodyear served as MP until 2015 when May was elected.

Running in Cambridge: Connie Cody for the Conservative Party, Michelle Braniff for the Green Party, Bryan May for the Liberal Party, Lorne Bruce for the New Democratic Party,  Maggie Segounis for the People's Party.

Waterloo, which Perrella says may be among one of the safest Liberal seats, could even surprise people. The incumbent MP is Bardish Chagger, who has served in the federal cabinet since being first elected in 2015. 

"Waterloo is an interesting seat. It has shown in the past to totally flip. They had a Liberal MP for a while, and then they switched to the Conservatives with Stephen Harper. Then they went back to the Liberals," he said. 

"I'm not too sure if those last victories were expected."

Running in Waterloo: Jonathan Cassels of the New Democratic Party, Bardish Chagger for the Liberal Party, Patrick Doucette of the People's Party of Canada, Meghan Shannon for the Conservative Party and Karla Villagomez Fajardo for the Green Party.

Waterloo also has an NDP Member of Provincial Parliament, with Catherine Fife, so the riding isn't adverse to looking beyond the Liberals and Conservatives, Perella noted.

"Waterloo does the unexpected," he said.

Wellington-Halton Hills: Impact of PPC

Wellington-Halton Hills is almost certainly going to be Conservative, Small says. The MP is Michael Chong, a high-profile Conservative who most recently was the party's foreign affairs critic (and who ran and lost a leadership bid to Andrew Scheer). He is popular among his constituents and has held the seat since the riding was created in 2004.

"This riding doesn't come into play until Michael Chong does not want to be the MP," Small said.

But what makes this race interesting to Small will be to see what impact the People's Party of Canada has in the race.

She says Syl Carle, the People's Party candidate, has a large number of signs up in the riding, including on front lawns. 

She doesn't expect Carle to upset Chong, but "I think certainly the rise of the PPC is going to be a percentage of the vote story."

"I'm interested to see to what extent people in this riding see this as a legitimate place for Conservatives," she added. 

Guelph: Going Green?

It seems unlikely Guelph voters will oust Liberal Lloyd Longfield from his bid for re-election, Small says, but adds: "Would I be 100 per cent blown away if they elected a Green member? No."

That's because Guelph already went with a Green MPP in Mike Schreiner, who is also the Green Party of Ontario Leader.

In the 2019 federal election, Green candidate Steve Dyck came in second, which is something to note, Small added.

"It's one of the few places in which a Green party candidate came second in the last election," she said.

But, in this election, the Greens may be standing in their own way, she adds.

"I think it may be in a different situation if the Greens weren't in the situation that they are currently in," Small said. "I think the Greens, the national Green party, made their lives more difficult for themselves in various ways."

The federal election is Monday, Sept. 20.

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