The Alberta NDP made gains, but remains in Opposition: What happens next?

Eight years ago, support from four out of 10 voters propelled Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley into the premier's office.

Late Monday night, the backing of at least 130,000 more Albertans than during the party's historic 2015 win wasn't enough to return her to the province's top post.

After conceding the election to United Conservative Party Leader Danielle Smith, Notley told supporters gathered in the ballroom of a downtown Edmonton hotel they should feel hopeful their MLAs will comprise the province's largest Official Opposition in history.

"We have achieved tremendous growth and opportunity for our future and for the values that we all share," Notley said.

Questions are inevitable about the future of a party that has within a decade ballooned from occupying a handful of seats in the legislature to become the most viable threat to conservative rule in the province — but still fell short of victory.

Notley took responsibility for the loss on Monday night. But she gave no indication she's considering a hasty career change.

"It is my honour to serve as your leader, and it is my privilege to continue to serve as leader of the Official Opposition," she said to the cheering crowd.

Following the 2017 merger of the former Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties, the Jason Kenney-led United Conservative Party consolidated the right-of-centre votes to defeat Notley's government in 2019.

Notley remained as NDP leader, determined for redemption in this election.

Citizens disenchanted with UCP cost-cutting decisions, including battles with Alberta's doctors and health-care workers, privatizing public services, prying away control of pensions, and the introduction of a controversial school curriculum helped bolster support for the NDP.

Early Tuesday morning, as votes continued to roll in, the NDP had earned about 44 per cent of the popular vote as compared to about 53 per cent for the UCP. It's the largest vote share the party has ever earned in the province.

Although a win remained elusive, party organizers pointed to other successes.

Two of the party's Indigenous candidates were elected in Edmonton, and will be the first Indigenous MLAs in the legislature since 2015.

NDP candidates were also elected in some Calgary ridings the party has never won before, including Calgary-Elbow and Calgary-Foothills.

"It's still a watershed in our province's history because, after three elections, now we've moved from being essentially a one-party state dominated by conservatives to a functional two-party system, and that's healthy for democracy," said Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour, following Notley's concession speech.

Although McGowan says he's troubled by what he sees as the UCP's adoption of "MAGA-style politics," he says he's relieved there will be a strong Opposition to push back against them.

Notley to face leadership review next year

Leah Ward, vice-president with Wellington Advocacy, worked for the Alberta NDP for five years while the party was in government and opposition.

This time, Notley expected to win, Ward said — as if failure was no option.

"It's certainly fair to speculate whether or not we would see a leadership change with the NDP," she said in an interview on Friday before election day.

The party's constitution compels it to conduct a leadership review at each convention meeting following an election year, which would set the next expected review in 2024.

Whether Notley stays on, and for how long, depends on factors such as the margin of the UCP's win, her enthusiasm to continue in the role, and the members' wishes, Ward said.

The UCP is beset by internal power struggles that led to Kenney's leadership demise. Smith secured the UCP leadership last year with the backing of members of a far-right grassroots group and third-party advertiser called Take Back Alberta.

Ward thinks these factors leave a UCP government unlikely to survive a four-year term.

It makes sense for Notley to wait in the wings, she said.

McGowan says Notley is effective, successful, and should stay on.

"She's done what a lot of people thought was impossible — putting the New Democrats on the map in a province traditionally conservative like Alberta," he said.

Bill Anderson, vice-president with Crestview Strategy and a former conservative campaigner, is more convinced NDP members will push for new leadership now that Notley has lost two consecutive provincial elections.

However, the party's success is so tightly tethered to Notley's pragmatic nudging of the party to centre, any chance would raise questions about the party's identity, he said.

"The NDP without Notley? Very different beast," Anderson said.

Although Ward and others involved with the party say an NDP leadership contest has the potential to generate interest from the public, Anderson said it could be a minefield.

"That leadership race is going to be full of candidates who I don't think are as relatable to centrist Albertans as Notley," he said. "I don't think it would make the party more popular in the immediate term."

The 59-year-old leader, who was Alberta's longest-serving MLA when the legislature dissolved, would be sought after in the private sector, Anderson added.

NDP voters don't want to think of the party without Notley

On Sunday, while lining up for Notley's last campaign rally at Edmonton's Polish Hall, NDP supporters were even more reluctant to contemplate a post-Notley future than an election loss.

Party member David Tremblay wants her to remain at the helm because of her goal to balance environmental and economic priorities — a position he says she effectively advocated from Opposition benches.

Several members said an election loss would likely galvanize, not erode, support for the NDP.

Supporter Nadine Riopel says the party needs a leadership succession plan, regardless.

"When you lose, you have to question your viability, right?" she says. "If what we've been doing isn't working, then we need to figure out what will and change the plan."

The NDP may also need to regain the support of Albertans further left on the spectrum.

Guy Smith leads the Alberta Union of Provincial Employees, which represents almost 100,000 workers in the civil service, health care, post-secondary education and more.

The union endorses no party in provincial elections, and has no formal affiliation with the NDP, unlike the AFL.

A party member since he was a teen, Smith grew frustrated with the NDP government during contract negotiations. And in February 2020, he ripped up his party membership card after Opposition MLAs backed a legislative motion denouncing Indigenous protesters blocking rail lines over a natural gas pipeline construction project.

This time, Smith voted for the Green Party. He liked its positions on defunding private schools and working with unions.

He knows other progressives who "held their nose" and voted NDP out of fear of another UCP government.

In her 2019 concession speech, Notley said, "We have fundamentally changed the politics of this province forever."

The question now is how long the two-party tug-of-war will go on.