Hot, dry growing season in Alberta drives drop in Canadian wheat production

Wheat production across Canada is down this year, driven by almost 20 per cent lower yields in Alberta after a brutal hot and dry growing season for many farmers.

A new Statistics Canada report released Monday reports total wheat production fell nearly seven per cent in 2023, ending at 32 million tonnes.

The difficult growing season across parts of the Prairies wasn't as bad as 2021, when widespread drought pushed total wheat production across Canada down by a whopping 38.5 per cent, with a decrease of 43 per cent in Alberta, and 48 per cent in Saskatchewan.

This year, dry conditions were worst for producers in southern and central parts of the province, according to data from Agriculture and Agrifood Canada. But precipitation was closer to average during the growing season around Edmonton and areas west of the city, which helped producers in those regions.

Stephen Vandervalk, who farms near Fort Macleod, Alta., about 150 kilometres south of Calgary, said weather for this year's growing season is just the latest blow for producers in his area, with drought and low crop yields for six out of the last seven years.

"It's really a tough spot. Our costs have literally doubled, I would say to put a crop in, in the last five years ... If it wasn't for crop insurance, this would be a whole different landscape."

Vandervalk, also the Alberta vice president of the Wheat Growers Association, said his durum wheat crop — primarily used for making pasta — ended this year with less than half the yield he'd normally expect.

From harvest to store shelves

Stuart Smyth, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Saskatchewan, said lower crop yields can contribute to a bump in prices at the grocery store.

But when it comes to staples made with wheat, it's not the same story across the board.

"It really depended on where the crop was grown," Smyth said.

While the durum wheat crop struggled in southern parts of the Prairies, other wheat varieties milled into the flour used to bake bread are grown more widely across Western Canada. Those yields, in areas that weren't as dry this year, fared better.

After wheat yields were down across the board in 2021, Statistics Canada data shows that the average price of pasta jumped 25 per cent between August 2021 to August 2022, just before harvest began again.

Over the same time period, the average price of white bread increased by 14 per cent.

Crop supply is just one factor in food prices — there are still other transportation, production and packaging costs that add up between farmers' fields and grocery store aisles.

Leif Carlson, the director of market intelligence and trade policy with industry association Cereals Canada, said growing conditions and production in other countries also contribute to the complex picture of the world wheat price.

"When we see a reduction in supply, that won't mean a shortage for the Canadian industry. That would mean that there would probably be less wheat or barley or oats that's available for our export customers."

Cereals Canada is now busy promoting the good quality of this year's wheat crop, despite the rough growing season for some producers. Carlson said when it was time for harvest, warm and dry weather was actually helpful — letting farmers finish quickly and helping protect the crops being brought into the bins.

"Canadian wheat is often blended with wheat from other parts of the world, and what Canadian wheat brings is good gluten strength," Carlson said.

"It'll be a matter of those customers coming to our export companies to get the price and availability so that they can order the wheat that they need for the rest of the year."