Edmonton homelessness numbers surge toward 5,000, highest recorded since at least 2019

The number of people experiencing homelessness in Edmonton, as counted by Homeward Trust, has increased by nearly 2,000 in the past year, up to 4,697 in September.

That figure includes people staying in shelters, those without any shelter, and those who have provisional accommodation, such as couch-surfing, but no stable housing.

The numbers for each of those categories, as well as the total, are the highest recorded since at least 2019.

"It's hard not to have an emotional reaction, because it speaks to a growing crisis," says Damian Collins, a human geography professor and housing expert at the University of Alberta.

"I think even a stronger word like calamity might be appropriate."

A hard-to-measure problem

There are two methods used to measure homelessness in Edmonton.

One is the point in time (PIT) count, which is conducted on a single day, with hundreds of volunteers counting the number of people experiencing homelessness. This method includes those who are unsheltered or not engaging with support agencies, but is only conducted once every two years in co-ordination with other cities in Canada.

The most recent PIT count was Oct. 10. The results won't be released for a few months.

The other method is the By Name List (BNL), which relies on data from 65 service providers and agencies. People are asked where they currently primarily stay: in a shelter, in provisional accommodation, or if they have no stable shelter at all. The BNL count is released monthly and provides a way to track trends on a shorter time frame.

The numbers from the latest BNL count "are probably more accurate than they've ever been," says Nadine Chalifoux, chairperson of the Edmonton Coalition on Housing and Homelessness.

However, "the by names list has never been a very accurate one because it's only people who are being serviced by social agencies. It's not including ... the ones that are still out there, homeless, without any connection to resources or to outreach folks." People can also decline to be registered.

She adds: "I would say you could add another thousand on there easily."

Susan McGee, CEO of Homeward Trust, says providing an accurate snapshot of a complex problem like homelessness is extremely difficult, and no method is perfect.

"The By Name List is an approach that's become pretty common throughout North America," she says. "If somebody has a better way of engaging people and keeping track of how to connect them to services, we're always open to that."

In September, more than half of respondents identified as Indigenous, despite that group making up about 6 per cent of the capital region's population. Nearly one-fifth of respondents were classified as dependent youths, with roughly 16 per cent aged 15 or younger.

The total count has steadily risen, from 2,757 one year ago to 4,697 last month — more than triple what it was in late 2019, before the pandemic.

Disputing the numbers

In the opening of the legislature's fall session on Monday, NDP housing critic Janis Irwin referenced the Homeward Trust figure of "nearly 5,000" while criticizing Jason Nixon, minister for Seniors, Community and Social Services.

In response, Nixon provided very different numbers.

"We continue to hover around 1,700 to 1,800 people in the city of Edmonton," he said. "We were under 90 per cent [shelter] capacity last night. We don't ever anticipate that we would be above 100, but we're ready to take action if that came forward."

The source of Nixon's numbers was unclear. Those figures are closer to — but still below — the combined number of people counted by Homeward Trust who are unsheltered or staying in shelters, which is 2,020. That excludes people who have provisional accommodation but still lack stable housing.

Nixon's press secretary did not respond to a request for clarification about the source of the numbers he quoted in the legislature, but provided a statement casting doubt on the notion that homelessness has significantly increased.

"The vast majority of people identified in Homeward Trust's own data are already provisionally housed, including those in housing programs, remand, and treatment centres — not living on the streets," said the statement.

"While the number of homeless people in Edmonton fluctuates, our data system shows that shelter user numbers are generally consistent with [the] same time last year, or even lower. Edmonton's shelter capacity has been expanded and is in a good position to handle the needs and will turn no one away."

Mistake to 'get into the weeds' of counting

Homeward Trust defines homelessness, in part, as: "The situation of an individual, family, or community without stable, safe, permanent, appropriate housing, or the immediate prospect, means and ability of acquiring it." This definition encompasses not only people living on the street, but "a range of physical living situations."

The number of people in the count without any shelter was 1,162 in September, an increase of 426 from 12 months ago.

"There's no doubt that homelessness [has worsened] and houseless community members are struggling," says McGee.

Collins is also skeptical of the argument that the situation hasn't gotten worse.

"The fact is that we have this incredible number of people experiencing homelessness in our city," says Collins.

"It would be a mistake to get into the weeds of arguing about how those people were found and when they were counted, when our focus should really be on what's happening here, what is driving homelessness and what can we do in response to ensure that these people are rehoused as quickly as possible."

Concern as winter approaches

In a statement, the City of Edmonton declined to comment on the Homeward Trust data.

The city said it "remains committed to responding with compassion and care," and will continue to "adapt our approach and help individuals experiencing homelessness have access to safe, warm spaces. This includes intensifying safeguards for vulnerable Edmontonians during extreme weather while keeping public spaces accessible."

With winter approaching, many advocates are concerned about the safety of unhoused Edmontonians. Frostbite amputations reached a record high last winter, and police say the encampment teardowns that provoked controversy earlier this year will continue.

Chalifoux says there needs to be a space where people without shelter can safely rest.

"Not just during the evening when it's the coldest, but 24/7, and have services that they can actually reach and be connected to instead of just being referred to," she says. "I think if we can set that up for the winter, then we've got a good start at actually lowering those numbers."

But while such emergency measures may do the minimum of keeping people safe from cold in the short term, they won't fix the underlying issue.

"Housing is going to be the ultimate solution of a housing crisis," says McGee.