Rainy forecast not enough to reverse course on Alberta's wildfire season, cautions meteorologist

As rain falls in communities across Alberta Wednesday, federal meteorologists caution the incoming storms will not be enough to reverse course on a devastating wildfire season.

Sara Hoffman, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, said the heavy rains forecasted in the days ahead will not dampen the wildfire risk for long. 

Meanwhile the incoming storms also bring the risk of high winds that could fan the flames of existing fires and lighting strikes that could ignite new ones.

Hoffman said Alberta endured a particularly dry winter, followed by an unusually parched spring, with communities including Edmonton and Calgary recording little to no precipitation in the first two weeks of June.

'Extreme deficit'

"We came into the summer season with a huge deficit within precipitation," Hoffman said. 

"We're going to need to see above normal precipitation amounts to try and counteract that extreme deficit. And our long range forecast is not, unfortunately, what it's calling for." 

To bring Alberta forests back into balance, the province would need extended rains, unusually high levels of precipitation for weeks, not days, Hoffman said. 

The wet weather will temporarily dampen parched forests but any relief provided will be short-lived when the heat returns. 

The shift in the forecast, however, is good news, Hoffman said. A low pressure system moving across the province will deliver widespread rain to some of the driest regions in Alberta.

Environment Canada is expecting widespread rainfall, with anywhere from five and 25 millilitres of precipitation falling in almost all areas of the province. 

As the system moves toward Saskatchewan on Thursday, Alberta remains in an unstable weather pattern marked by cooler temperatures and scattered showers, Hoffman said.

As of Wednesday morning, 79 wildfires were burning across the province. Of the 76 burning inside Alberta's forest protection areas, 22 were out of control.

According to an estimate on the Alberta Wildfire dashboard, more than 1,427,000 hectares have burned so far this year, surpassing the previous record of 1,357,000 set in 1981.

Edson remains under threat

A light rain was falling in Edson Wednesday morning as firefighters attempted to hold the line on a fire burning  around 1.5 kilometres from the town's southern boundary. 

About 10,000 residents were forced out by a fire that continues to threaten the town 200 kilometres west of Edmonton. It was the second time this year that residents in the town were forced to evacuate due to the risk of fire. 

In an update Wednesday afternoon, officials announced that evacuation orders will lift in select areas of the county starting at 6 p.m. MT. Sections of Highway 16, excluding sections that pass through town, will also be re-opened.

The town itself, and some areas under the county still under threat, remain under evacuation.

Returning evacuees were cautioned that no services — including EMS — are available in the town of Edson.

Wade Williams, mayor of Yellowhead County, said evacuees concerned about access to urgent health services should consider delaying their return.

He said he hopes the fire can be tamed and that residents will be returning home for good but cautioned that evacuation orders could be issued once again

"Come home, enjoy your homes. I wouldn't unpack quite yet." 

Alberta Wildfire said fires in the Edson area received 13 to19 mm of rain overnight.

"This is a decent amount of rain and will buy firefighters a few days of quiet fire behaviour but it is not significant enough to change the very dry conditions in our forest," says the statement.

In Fort Chipewyan, home to members of the Mikisew Cree First Nation, Fort Chipewyan Metis Nation and Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, evacuation orders have been in place for more than two weeks.

Residents of the remote northeastern community, forced to evacuate by boat and plane, are now anxious to return home. Facing questions from evacuees during a town hall Tuesday, Jody Butz,  regional fire chief, said there is no timeline for a return.

"I know many of you wish to be home and I understand that," he said. "Unfortunately, we can't give an exact date or even an estimate on when it will be safe to return." 

However, the fire threatening the community, now more than 60,000 hectares in size, has begun to show signs of retreat, Butz said. Fire officials said the south line of the fire is now fully contained.

"That's a very significant milestone," Butz said."But there's a difference between containment and control." 

In order declare that the fire's south line is fully under control, crews will need to ensure the flames are extinguished about 100 metres beyond the current perimeter. 

Butz said, in the meantime, fire breaks are being expanded around the community. Using bulldozers and chainsaws, crews are felling trees and clearing out underbrush to create a new layer of fire protection around Fort Chip. 

Judy-Ann Cardinal, vice president of Fort Chipewyan Métis Local 125, said more dramatic measures are needed to protect the community.

She said it will take time for the land and the community's families to heal from the trauma of the fire. 

"We know some of the protection measures seem extreme and are upsetting to see, but we are doing what we can to fight the fire and keep our community safe," Cardinal told the Tuesday town hall.

"Fort Chip will look different when you come home."