The Brian Jean Effect: What lies ahead for Alberta's unite-the-right effort?
Some see many obstacles ahead for two parties to merge before the next provincial election
A process that began in 2015, the day after a political dynasty ended, has since devolved into a debate about the fact or fiction of collapsing the once-mighty Alberta Progressive Conservative Party.
Jason Kenney, whose PC leadership bid continues to gather delegate support, has focused for months on his single-minded plan to create a unified, right-of-centre party.
Then on Thursday, Alberta's unite-the-right movement suddenly had a new player in the game, when Wildrose Leader Brian Jean announced he would be willing to step down and run for the leadership of a new, united conservative party.
- Wildrose Leader Brian Jean willing to step down to head united conservative party
- 'Time is of the essence': Brian Jean calls for merger within six months
Jean told CBC News on Friday he is acting on the wishes of Wildrose members, who have told him over the past year that he should pursue unity, but only in a way that honours his party's commitment to grassroots democracy. He said any merger would have to happen quickly, within the next six months.
If Jean finds widespread support among members, he said his party could hold an annual general meeting to approve the merger by June, so that a leadership race could begin the following month and a leader could be in place before the fall legislative sitting.
It's impossible to say what impact Jean's announcement will have on the current PC leadership race, which will be decided at a convention in March.
PC delegate selection meetings will be held almost daily until Feb. 15, to choose members who will attend that convention to vote for the new leader.
While Kenney's ultimate goal is clear, his opponents in the race have increasingly questioned the wisdom of combining two parties to create a single entity, or shutting down the PC party altogether.
One of those opponents, former MLA Stephen Khan, dropped out of the race on Thursday, leaving a field of three.
'Can't be done in two years'
"The new political entity would start with no constitution, no principles, no leader, no constituency associations and money," said Starke, who analyzed the rules while on the committee that reviewed the Electoral Financing Contributions Disclosure Act.
"It can't be done in two years."
Leadership candidate and Calgary lawyer Byron Nelson takes the argument a step further, saying a merger would all but guarantee the re-election of the NDP.
"By the time the next election rolls around, we're going to be in the middle of this complicated path," Nelson said. "We're not going to be ready to fight the next election."
He and Starke both favour rebuilding the PC party.
"I would go as far as to say how impossible it would be to conduct this process within two years, or a maximum of two years, between the leadership and the next election," said Nelson.
Both the PC and Wildrose parties have constitutionally mandated time frames for any major changes, such as de-registering with Elections Alberta. Both parties would have to hold meetings, and members would have to be canvassed for approval.
'We know how to do this'
But one of those who orchestrated the coming-together of the federal Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance said a merger can be done in relatively short order.
"We've done this so many times," said Ian Brodie, a University of Calgary political science professor and one-time chief of staff to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
"It's not simple but we know how to do this, and there is plenty of time."
Brodie said the creation of a policy book, constitution and even a leadership campaign could be wrapped up within six to eight weeks. He pointed to support among those rank-and-file members within the PC and Wildrose who are eager to work out an arrangement.
"When there's that kind of overwhelming will, I think all of the objections people throw up here, we can work through these pretty quickly," said Brodie.
In July, Kenney said the new party could be constituted by mid-2017, and the newly named party would begin recruiting a "dream team" of candidates in 2018.
"We won't get into specifics at this point in time, as we wouldn't want to preempt future negotiations," said Blaise Boehmer, a member of the Kenney campaign team. He said a number of mechanisms have been discussed that would permit "the creation of a new united, free-enterprise party."
'It doesn't work that way'
Under the Elections Act, there is no mechanism to form a new political entity from parties that are already registered.
"You can't merge existing parties and then transfer all the funds between them, it doesn't work that way," said Drew Westwater, deputy chief electoral officer of Alberta.
Registered parties would have to "de-register," Westwater said, and would have to clear outstanding debts and transfer all assets to the chief electoral officer to be held in trust for one year.
After that year, said Westwater, if the party doesn't re-register, its assets would be transferred to the Government of Alberta general revenue fund.
That means the PC party would have to first pay off its $750,000 outstanding debt. Money would also be drained from constituency associations and candidate accounts, a total Richard Starke estimated at about $1.7 million.
"The one who's raising money in provincial politics is the Jason Kenney leadership campaign," said Brodie. "Whatever money you might lose in the merger between the PC party and the Wildrose, I don't doubt that you would make that up in the first four weeks of fundraising for the new party."
After the first year, Brodie said, "people would forget that there were financial costs to merge, because the plus side would be so big."
While there was a clear path to merging federal parties, Ian Brodie acknowledged that's not the case in Alberta. But he said the challenges are not insurmountable, and would require about "a day or two of legal work" to get through.
PC party delegates will choose their new party leader on March 18 in Calgary.