Growth rate slows, but Alberta population still up nearly 200,000 over 2016: census

Data shows Alberta's population has increased since 2016 — but at a much slower pace than the province has seen over the previous four census periods.

Every five years, Statistics Canada conducts a census to update its population counts in various ways. On Wednesday, it released the first round of 2021 census data: population and dwelling counts.

Alberta has experienced some of the highest population growth rates in Canada over the last 20 years, peaking at 11.6 per cent for the five-year period between 2011 and 2016, data shows.

The latest census information shows Alberta's population grew from about 4.07 million in 2016 to more than 4.26 million in 2021 — an increase of about 200,000 people, but a five-year growth rate of 4.8 per cent.

"[The growth rate] wouldn't be so noticeable or interesting, except that we've always been such a fast-growing population in the past," Jenny Godley, a University of Calgary associate professor of sociology with a focus on demography, said Wednesday.

In the latest census, Alberta lagged behind the national average growth rate of 5.2 per cent, but several other provinces and territories saw lower population growth since 2016, data shows.

Immigration census data will not be released until later this year. But Godley suggests the lower growth was mainly due to fewer immigrants landing in Alberta — as international immigration was hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic — and more people moving from the province to places like British Columbia.

To Sandeep Agrawal, director of the University of Alberta's school of urban and regional planning, it's still growth, regardless.

"People are still coming in and this is not natural growth [the ratio of births versus deaths]," Agrawal said. "These are almost all immigrants and refugees from other places, who still wish to make Alberta their home." 

More Albertans living in urban areas

Although the provincial population grew less than normal over the last five years, more people moved to Alberta's largest cities. About 58 per cent of all Albertans live in Edmonton, Calgary or Red Deer.

About 650,000 people — or 15 per cent of the population — live in rural Alberta. Data shows the vast majority of communities that saw dips in population were rural.

"Urbanization is happening at a very rapid pace, so the municipalities have to come to terms with it," said Agrawal.

Edmonton — Canada's fifth-most populated city — has surpassed the one-million-residents mark for the first time, growing by almost 78,000 people in the last five years.

More than 1.01 million people live in the province's capital city now, compared to about 933,000 people in 2016 — an increase of about 8.3 per cent.

Calgary, however, remains Alberta's largest city: 1.3 million people live in Calgary now, versus about 1.24 million in 2016.

The 2021 census showed Red Deer's population is 100,844, up marginally from 100,418 in 2016.

The increases speak to shifts in how people live, Godley said, explaining that many services and opportunities — jobs and education, for example — are in urban places.

"People are drawn to that," she said.

Much of the growth occurred in downtown areas and in some locations that Stats Can calls intermediate suburbs — areas 20 to 30 minutes from downtown.

Edmonton and Calgary saw the highest growth in those areas in Canada, each recording over 23 per cent growth in the intermediate suburbs, the agency said in a news release Wednesday.

Growth in satellite communities

Data shows a trend: communities just outside Edmonton and Calgary have grown over the last five years, as did some summer villages.

Cochrane, just northwest of Calgary, grew by 24.5 per cent. The population increased from almost 25,900 in 2016 to about 32,200 in 2021.

Airdrie, north of Calgary, and Beaumont, south of Edmonton, each grew by about 20 per cent.

Agrawal said that growth signals that cities will continue to grow, becoming even stronger economic engines for Alberta.

From an urban planning standpoint, it means municipal councils and metropolitan boards have to consider expanding in sustainable ways, he said.

But it also dampens the rural economy, he said. So the provincial government must ensure sectors such as agriculture are not forgotten.

More census data to be released throughout the year will reveal more about how Alberta has changed.

But Agrawal and Godley each wonder what impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had, as it accounts for less than two years of the five-year inter-census period.