B.C. United's collapse hinged on 2 decisions, analysts say
B.C. United is suspending its campaign, leader urges supporters to join forces with B.C. Conservatives
As many political watchers noted, Wednesday will likely go down as a monumental day in British Columbia politics — especially for the party formerly known as the B.C. Liberals.
What is now known as B.C. United will essentially not be a factor in the upcoming provincial election, after party leader Kevin Falcon's surprise move to suspend the Official Opposition's campaign and throw his weight behind John Rustad's upstart B.C. Conservatives.
Falcon, a former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, cut an atypical and forlorn figure as he announced the move at a news conference on Wednesday, said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.
"This is a man who early on in his career, and through a long good chunk of it, has had a thread of confidence, even at times cockiness, chippiness," she said. "This was a man today who looked like he was on the brink of tears.
"Everything about what his body and his face was telling you was just how tough this has been for him to swallow both personally and professionally."
Political scientists point to his decision to boot Rustad out of his party, and his decision to change the party's name, as reasons for the party's collapse.
The move to suspend campaigning is likely to have ruffled feathers among B.C. United MLAs and staffers, according to analysts, especially given Falcon and Rustad had pointedly rejected a merger deal in May.
"This was a party that up until minutes ago … was looking to compete in this election," said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia (UBC), on Wednesday afternoon just after the news conference.
"And simply to wave the white flag, and to stand aside like this ... we haven't seen quite this version of this story before."
Rustad capitalized on Conservative boost
Polling numbers had B.C. United a distant third behind the B.C. NDP and B.C. Conservatives, and fundraising numbers were also on a downward trend.
As reflected in a recent decision to ask to have "formerly B.C. Liberals" in brackets next to the B.C. United name on the ballot in October, a former MLA says the party rebrand — something championed by Falcon after he became leader in February 2022 — was poorly timed and not well executed.
"There was basically nothing done in terms of rebranding and helping the public understand who B.C. United was," said former Liberal cabinet minister Bill Bennett of the name change, which went through in April 2023.
"So that was, I think, a big mistake in the beginning and I don't know that anybody's to blame for that — there just, there wasn't money for it."
Gerald Baier, an associate professor of political science at UBC, said the rebrand will likely not factor into the post-mortem of Falcon's leadership as much as his decision to kick Rustad out of his party in August 2022.
Rustad went on to pick up the dormant B.C. Conservative Party — not affiliated with the federal Conservatives — and capitalized on that party's positive momentum, according to Baier.
After Rustad's departure from the party, he began attracting B.C. United MLAs and candidates to the Conservatives — with three MLAs joining his party in the span of three months this year.
"If there's a single decision that Kevin Falcon could go back and reconsider, it's probably that one, his expulsion of Rustad," Baier said.
What comes next?
The move to have some B.C. United candidates carrying the Conservative flag will harden battle lines against the reigning B.C. NDP in the election, which is scheduled for Oct. 19.
The Conservatives will now have to work out which B.C. United candidates to include in their slate — something that could leave some voters and candidates without a home, according to Prest.
"I think the NDP are really going to work to make it clear that this election is going to be a choice between two very distinct visions for the province," he said.
"[They'll] really try to emphasize those top-of-mind issues, around affordability and housing and health care, and really try to draw that distinction between themselves and their single main adversary now."
Baier says the decision will likely negatively impact both B.C. United and Conservative party staffers.
"There's going to be a lot of people burned, both candidates and staff," he said. "You know, they're gonna feel burned about their experience in politics, about their loyalty to whatever alternative now exists, who they're gonna work for in the future."
Corrections
- An earlier version of this story stated that John Rustad was removed from the B.C. Liberal Party caucus in February 2023. In fact, he was removed in August 2022.Aug 29, 2024 8:18 AM PT
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With files from Power & Politics, On The Coast, Dan Burritt, Zameer Karim and The Canadian Press