British Columbia·Analysis

B.C.'s unofficial election campaign is in full swing

While we're a month away from the official start of the election campaign, party leaders are already making their pitch to voters on how they'll address the top issues facing British Columbians.

Campaign begins Sept. 21, but party leaders have already begun making their pitch to voters

A composite image of four portraits: three white men and one white woman.
From left to right: B.C. NDP Leader David Eby, United Leader Kevin Falcon, B.C. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau and B.C. Conservatives Leader John Rustad. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press, Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press, Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press, Dirk Meissner/The Canadian Press)

Premier David Eby strolled down Oak Bay Avenue this week alongside NDP candidate Diana Gibson, stopping for an iced Americano and talking to seniors about their concerns around health care. 

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad has been touring northern B.C. and plans to visit several gurdwaras this weekend in vote-rich Surrey, where the party is hoping to pick up seats.

B.C. United Leader Kevin Falcon is making another policy announcement Thursday and B.C. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau has been knocking on doors in the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding. 

The provincial election campaign doesn't officially start until Sept. 21, but the four party leaders are already in campaign mode, delivering their pitch on the fix for British Columbians' major frustrations: the cost of living, high real estate prices, crime and social disorder.

Eby, Rustad and Falcon are all going into their first election as party leaders, while Furstenau is going into her second.

While recent opinion polls have the B.C. Conservatives catching up to the NDP and even ahead by some measures, Eby's party has a leg up, when it comes to the size of its election war chest.

A graph shows the subsidies to the four main political parties with the B.C. NDP on top, followed by B.C. United and the B.C. Green Party with the B.C. Conservatives at the bottom.
A breakdown of the subsidy from Elections B.C. to the main political parties based on the 2020 vote count. (CBC)

The New Democrats currently lead in political donations, and they will get the largest subsidy from Elections B.C. based on the vote count in the 2020 election.

The party will receive $1.62 million. The Official Opposition B.C. United will get $1.15 million, the B.C. Greens $514,000, while the B.C. Conservatives will receive $64,982.

However, after seven years in power, the NDP also carries the weight of voter frustration on the affordability crisis, house prices, crime and social disorder.

UBC political scientist Stewart Prest said this election will be, in large part, "a referendum on B.C. NDP performance on these files where there's a lot of frustration."

B.C. NDP campaign manager Marie Della Mattia, who brings with her the experience of working on former premier John Horgan's election campaigns in 2017 and 2020, says the party is confident it can put forward concrete policies to help voters with growing costs. 

"We want to make sure we remind people of the choices of the past and how those choices cost people and the choices we're making now to make sure those costs aren't on people anymore," she said.  

Eby is increasingly making Rustad the focus of his attacks as the B.C. Conservatives continue their political ascent. The party has gone from two per cent support in the 2020 election to polling neck-and-neck with and even ahead of the New Democrats in some opinion polls.

What's behind the surge in support for the B.C. Conservatives?

3 months ago
Duration 9:57
The B.C. Conservatives had less than two per cent of the popular vote in 2020, but are now polling in second place behind the B.C. NDP with just over two months until the provincial election. CBC's Laurence Watt details what's driving the surge in momentum for the party.

"It is definitely feeling like a Cinderella story," says B.C. Conservative campaign manager Angelo Isidorou.

The party has the most nominated candidates so far, with 83. The NDP has 78 candidates confirmed, B.C. United has 57 and the B.C. Greens 31.

However, Rustad's rush to hand-pick most of his preferred candidates for 93 ridings has been rocky. 

Members of at least one riding association say they're frustrated the leader parachuted in a candidate with few ties to the riding.

Rustad installed former B.C. Liberal leadership candidate Gavin Dew as the candidate in Kelowna-Mission and ousted the existing candidate, Alexandra Wright.

Dew moved to the riding with his family last year. 

Teresa Wat, 4th B.C. United MLA to defect to B.C. Conservatives

4 months ago
Duration 2:05
The B.C. Conservative Party has poached another MLA from B.C. United. Richmond's Teresa Wat has been officially introduced as the Conservatives' newest member and candidate ahead of the provincial election.

A new website has popped up called firejohnrustad.ca, which purports to be the work of disgruntled B.C. Conservatives who say Rustad is diluting conservative values to try to appeal to more voters. They cite Rustad's recruitment of former B.C. United MLAs and candidates, including Richmond's Theresa Wat.

CBC News has not been able to confirm who is behind the website, and Rustad alleged it was set up by a rival party, although he did not provide evidence to support that. Rustad defended his leadership style, saying the party has grown from 500 members to about 9,000. "There may be some people who are disgruntled about that. I'm not too worried about it," he told CBC News.

Isidorou says the party has to evolve if it wants to become a big tent party.

A man with a beard and glasses looks at the camera.
Angelo Isidorou, the B.C. Conservatives' campaign manager, is pictured at the party's newly acquired headquarters in Vancouver on Tuesday. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

"The old B.C. Conservative Party got two per cent in the polls. The old B.C. Conservative party couldn't field a full slate of candidates. The old B.C. Conservative party couldn't speak to all British Columbians," he said.

The Official Opposition B.C. United is trying to rebound after losing several MLAs and candidates to Rustad's party, including Wat, Elenore Sturko, Lorne Doerkson and Chris Moore. 

Campaign manager Mark Werner says the party has already seen a boost after promising to cut the provincial income tax from the first $50,000 earned by every British Columbian. Falcon said it would be the largest tax cut in provincial history 

"No one is going to come close to our policy platform. We continue to show that's where we lead," said Werner.

Werner is a long-time B.C. Liberal who has worked on the leadership campaigns of Ellis Ross and Todd Stone and worked on the federal Conservative campaign in 2021 as the senior regional organizer for British Columbia. 

The B.C. Green Party, meanwhile, is fighting to keep its two seats in the legislature.

Adam Olsen, the MLA for Saanich North and the Islands, is not running again. Leader Sonia Furstenau is not running in her current riding of Cowichan Valley, which is being redrawn, but will run instead in the NDP stronghold of Victoria- Beacon Hill.

The Greens have brought in campaign manager Maureen Balsillie, who most recently worked with the Ontario Greens and helped flip a riding in Kitchener from NDP to Green in a 2023 byelection. 

She said the party will have a full slate of candidates, but the strategy is to really focus on about six ridings where the party believes it has a strong chance of winning. 

"There's always the concern of what's going on at the provincial level, what's going on with party leaders," Balsillie said. "But what the Greens have been able to show across the country  is that you guys can keep fighting about that stuff. We're going to do the work of actually engaging people." 

Corrections

  • A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that Gavin Dew moved to the Kelowna-Mission riding this year. In fact, Drew moved to the riding in July 2023.
    Aug 22, 2024 10:45 AM PT

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Katie DeRosa

Provincial affairs reporter

Katie DeRosa is the provincial affairs reporter for CBC British Columbia. She is based in Victoria. You can contact her at katie.derosa@cbc.ca.