Canada's carbon emissions declined in 2023 even as economy, population grew, early estimates show

Canada's carbon emissions continued their slow decline in 2023, dropping about one per cent from the previous year, according to an early summary from the federal government.

The numbers are a first ever early estimate from the government, which would normally release emissions numbers for 2023 in mid-2025.

They are intended to help track progress during a crucial moment for the world's climate — 2024 is set to be the hottest year on record, with the average temperature for the year breaching 1.5 C above pre-Industrial levels for the first time.

The government's early summary says Canada's emissions were 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, down six megatonnes from 2022 emissions and down 8.5 per cent from 2005 levels.

The early estimates don't include the land-use sector, which includes emissions from Canada's managed forests and the forestry sector.

"After the pandemic, we have an economy that's bouncing back. The economy is growing fairly rapidly, we have big population growth which drives a lot of emissions and vehicles and housing and just activity in general," said Dave Sawyer, principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute, a policy think-tank.

"So to see a reduction, despite growing population and growing economy, is quite a positive sign," he said.

Canada's goal is to reduce emissions to 40-45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

Last week, Canada's Climate Minister Steven Guilbeault released the country's new 2035 emissions target, a slight advance over the 2030 target. Guilbeault touted the Liberal government's record, including a whole suite of regulations and investments to boost clean technologies and clean energy in Canada.

"It's the first time in the history of our country that pollution is going down while the economy is going up. We've never seen that before," he said. 

"The only times in our history when pollution has gone down was because of economic recession," he said, referring to the financial downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The estimates released today are just a short summary of emissions by economic sector, rather than the much more detailed National Inventory Report the government will publish next year, which runs into hundreds of pages and estimates the carbon footprint of every small corner of the Canadian economy. 

This earlier release helps governments "course correct on policy and to track results," Sawyer said.

"Knowing where we are, a little earlier, allows us to take action and be thoughtful about fixing policies or thinking about where we need to go next," he said.

Emissions from oil and gas — Canada's largest emitting sector — went down one megatonne, according to the early summary. Sawyer said regulations aimed at tightening up leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that escapes from oil and gas equipment and transmission lines, is having an effect. 

Emissions from buildings also went down five megatonnes. Sawyer suggested that might be a combination of a milder winter in 2023 and government policies to encourage retrofitting buildings and adopt heat pumps.

Meanwhile, emissions from electricity production remained the same. But Sawyer said that comes after massive reductions in the past, especially after coal-powered plants start getting phased out across the country. This week, the government released its final regulations to transition the electricity grid to non-emitting sources of power, like hydro and solar, by moving away from gas-fired power plants.

"Are we on path? No, we're not on path. The government's own projections show we're off path to 2030, but we have the policy in place to get there," Sawyer said. 

"And assuming we don't strip a lot of policy away, we can continue to reduce emissions."