Provinces need to do more to cut emissions, feds say, while announcing Canada's new 2035 climate target

Canada will cut carbon emissions 45 to 50 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035, the federal government announced today, signalling a small advance over the current target but falling short of what a key group of climate experts had recommended to the government.

Put more simply, Canada will have to slash carbon emissions by at least 41 per cent in the next 10 years. The new target for the 2035 milestone year will be followed by a multi-year consultation process to craft a plan to reach the target, guiding climate policy for the next decade.

"We chose a target which we felt was both ambitious but achievable. I want to be as ambitious as Canada can possibly be, but the federal government can't do it alone," said Steven Guilbeault, Canada's minister of environment and climate change.

"If we could work constructively with provinces across the country, then Canada will be able to do much more much, much faster."

Canada's climate laws require the government to set new targets every five years, and it is also part of the country's obligations under the United Nations convention that guides international climate action.

The governing Liberals passed the landmark Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act in 2021 to require the government to release targets — and plans to achieve them — in a bid to enshrine Canadian climate action into law. The same legislation also created the Net-Zero Advisory Body, an independent group of experts that would advise the government on emissions targets and the best ways to achieve those reductions.

Ottawa wants provinces to step up

Earlier this year, those experts recommended Canada cut emissions 50 to 55 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035. The new target the government has announced is less ambitious than that.

Guilbeault says his department's internal analysis suggests emission reductions greater than 50 per cent are possible, but unlikely without provincial co-operation — and the Liberals have struggled in recent years to get reticent provincial premiers on board.

"Let's be very honest with each other: some provinces are refusing to act on climate change, [to] even recognize that climate change is a problem," Guilbeault said. 

"I'm hoping that over time, in the coming years, this will change and we will be in a different space. But right now, this is the political environment."

Major emitting provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario have challenged federal climate action in court, especially carbon pricing  — although the carbon pricing system has survived and is in place across the country.

Alberta is now trying to oppose Ottawa's proposed cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector, which is a major — and growing — source of emissions.

Finding right balance while setting target

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement on fighting climate change, countries have to gradually build on climate action every five years in the form of new targets, called Nationally Determined Contributions. The system is designed to peer-pressure countries into greater climate ambition — a country that doesn't improve its targets risks looking like a laggard. 

With its new 2035 target, Canada joins countries like the U.K. and Brazil, which have released new targets in previous weeks.

Canada's last target, released in 2021, aimed to cut emissions 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. The new target is not much of an improvement on the old one, says Catherine Abreu, a longtime Canadian climate advocate who now directs the International Climate Politics Hub, which supports organizations working on global climate negotiations. 

"That momentum in the global economy toward clean energy is irreversible. And Canada is already losing out on a significant market share in the clean global economy," she said.

"With this goal, Canada is basically saying 'We're going to be less ambitious in transforming our economy than all of our major trading partners.' "

Abreu warned that without a more ambitious target, Canada may lose credibility on the world stage as other countries question its commitment to driving down emissions.

Anna Kanduth, director of the 440 Megatonnes initiative at the Canadian Climate Institute, a data-driven project to track climate progress, says target-setting is about tradeoffs, with pros and cons when it comes to setting more ambitious goals.

A less ambitious goal that's more achievable could risk "delaying action into the longer term, potentially delaying investments in low-carbon transition." On the other hand, aiming for steeper emissions reductions comes with "potential challenges for the economy, for households and also might be more difficult to achieve with policy."

"I think too often we take a pass-fail approach to thinking about targets, when in reality, what matters most is those sustained deep emissions reductions on the path to 2050," Kanduth said.

"I would encourage folks to think about these as important markers along the way, as important milestones that are driving progress ... and that if we get close to those targets, I think that's still success."