Q&A: Historian says U.S. tried to annex Canada with tough tariffs before — and it didn't work

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants Canada to become the 51st state, even suggesting he'd use 'economic force' to make it happen. He's also implemented — only to reverse course and partially pause — chaotic and punishing tariffs on Canadian goods.

Canadian historian Craig Baird, who lives in Stony Plain, Alberta and hosts the Canadian History Ehx podcast, says Canada has been here before, when U.S. Representative William McKinley, who would go on to become the 25th president, implemented high tariffs in the 1890s.

The historic tariffs were part of a plan to make Canada both more reliant on the U.S., but also force the annexation and turn it into a state. Baird says it didn't work then and isn't likely to work under Trump.

This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Q: We look at this now and say 'how ridiculous,' but how big a threat was it at the time?

A: It was a pretty significant threat. Everybody knew exactly what was happening. Britain knew what was happening. But it was definitely an attempt to really push us toward the United States and away from Britain. At the time we were still a relatively new country. We were only 30-odd years old and the United States was still quite powerful and we were reliant on them. We did send a lot of trade over the border to them, so it really was a significant threat.

Obviously they did not succeed in annexing Canada, so what was the outcome?

The funny thing is that it had the complete opposite effect. It backfired immensely on the United States. Not only did it increase prices for people in the United States, but Canada really started to kind of join hands and become more nationalistic and we aligned ourselves much more with Britain. So our trade with Britain skyrocketed over the next couple years, from 1890 to 1892. And it really shifted us away from the United States and made us feel more part of the British Empire.

Then it also hurt McKinley and the Republicans because they were decimated in the 1892 election and they lost control of the House, the Senate and the presidency. So it really didn't work for them, but it actually did work pretty well for Canadians.

And how big a factor was the tariff issue when it came to McKinley losing so bad?

It was a huge factor because in the United States, farmers were struggling and a lot of people were seeing higher prices for things. When the Republicans lost the election, a lot of the newspapers did put the 'McKinley Tariff' as the biggest factor.

In Canada we also used that, or at least Sir John A. Macdonald did, when in the 1891 election he used that as kind of a rallying cry and was able to get another majority government for the Conservatives.

How did we end up going back to American influence after we had separated ourselves in that way?

After McKinley and the Republicans were ousted, the Democrats actually brought in a new policy that greatly reduced the tariff and led Canada to start trading more with the United States.

Then in the 1980s, when we got into free trade, we became even more intertwined with the United States. Obviously there's a big difference between now and then in terms of how trading is done, but it is very reminiscent of what happened 135 years ago.

What kinds of similarities are you seeing in the situation we're looking at right now?

There's quite a few similarities in the fact that tariffs are being used to weaken the Canadian economy in order to gain our resources. Back then it was about gaining fishing and timber resources and now it's gaining other resources such as oil and minerals. 

But there are some differences. We're not quite trading as much with Britain. Britain isn't as much of a giant power, but we are looking now to other trading partners — the European Union and China, South America — and looking to bypass the United States.

What can we learn from 130 years ago and apply it to this situation now in terms of keeping our economy as viable as possible?

While the United States is an important trading partner, they're not the only trading partner and we can definitely find other ways to trade. And it might even be easier now because things can be transported a lot faster. There is much more of a global trading network. So we have many more options available to us.

But it also shows that when Canadians are under threat, even if it's a trade war, we tend not to back down and we just find another way to do things and let the Americans suffer with their tariffs and the decisions that they made.
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