Conservatives could sweep N.L. in cross-Canada landslide, says poll analyst

With five of the six Liberals MPs in Newfoundland and Labrador not running in the next federal election and the Conservatives looking at a possible landslide victory, a poll analyst believes many seats in the province will flip from red to blue.

Éric Grenier, a poll analyst with The Writ who is also running the CBC's Poll Tracker for the federal campaign, said he can draw some insight from who is and isn't running.

"The government has been in power for 10 years, and after 10 years, you do tend to get some people who retire. They don't want to commit for another four years," he told CBC Radio's On the Go.

However, he said there is the unavoidable reality that many Liberal politicians aren't likely to win their seats given the current polling numbers.

Avalon MP Ken McDonald, St. John's South-Mount Pearl MP Seamus O'Regan and Bonavista-Burin-Trinity MP Churence Rogers announced in 2024 they weren't seeking re-election. Last week, they were joined by Long Range Mountains MP Gudie Hutchings and Labrador MP Yvonne Jones, who both announced they were also bowing out.

"For five of six Liberal MP's in Newfoundland and Labrador to hang up the skates, it is a reflection, a little bit, of how difficult it was going to be for them," said Grenier.

LISTEN | CBC's Krissy Holmes chats with poll analyst Éric Grenier about the upcoming federal election: 

On The Go13:54NL Liberal MP's exodus and polls analysis

There is an exodus happening in the federal liberal party... and we now know that five of the six current Liberal MP's for this province won't be seeking re-election. We check in with polls analyst at The Writ.ca to find out what his data is showing for this province. (Krissy Holmes with Éric Grenier)

With the exception of Jones in Labrador, Grenier said he wouldn't have expected any Liberal MPs outside of St. John's to win their seats.

"So they might have been just reading the writing on the wall," he said.

N.L. could turn blue

Grenier anticipates on election day, N.L. will follow what looks to be the trend across the country and end up blue, with one or two red or orange dots around St. John's.

"I think that is likely what we're going to see not only in Newfoundland, Labrador, but probably in most parts of the country, with the exception of Quebec," said Grenier.

Grenier believes the sole N.L. Conservative MP Clifford Small will win his Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame seat.

He thinks Conservatives are likely to pick up the N.L. seats of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Avalon, Long Range Mountains and Labrador.

"Those look pretty likely to swing over to the Conservatives. The Liberals won them by relatively small margins last time," he said.

He said St. John's-East, held by Liberal MP Joanne Thompson, and St. John's South-Mount Pearl could also flip — possibly by the NDP.

"Those are really the two ridings I think I'm going to be watching on election night in the province," said Grenier.

Conservative landslide?

Last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, kicking off a leadership race while also proroguing Parliament until March 24.

The Liberal party will select a new leader on March 9 to head them through the next federal election — one Grenier expects will be difficult for the new leader to win.

"Maybe that person will get a bit of a honeymoon. We've seen that before with new party leaders, new premiers, prime ministers when they come in. But it is a huge gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives right now. About 24 points," he said.

He said they'll need to close that chasm in the short time after the leadership vote and the end of the federal election.

Grenier said he expects the federal election call will come in March and the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives will win a massive victory.

"Right now they could win somewhere around 220 to 230 seats. That is a huge, huge majority," he said.

"If the current polling holds true straight through to election day, this would be the biggest caucus in terms of raw numbers in all of Canadian history," he said.

Overall, he said the Liberals are projected to win between 40 and 45 seats.

"That is a loss of over 100 seats and it would actually put them in contention for official opposition status or third place," said Grenier.

The Bloc Québécois could form the official opposition, he said, which hasn't happened since the 1993 election.

"So there could be a lot of change, but I'm also expecting a lot of change over the next few weeks and months as we have the Liberal leadership race. And whether that's going to shake things up, it's hard to say right now."

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