St. John's prepares for cruise ship season, but an industry expert is wary of the economic impact

After a two-year hiatus, St. John's hopes to welcome its first cruise ship of the season on June 12, which is exciting news for Brendan Quinlan, owner of Legend Tours in downtown St. John's.

Quinlan offers tours tailored to cruise ship passengers, but the pandemic forced him to put that side of the business on hold.

"Of course, we're looking forward to this season," Quinlan told CBC News. "It seems every day we're getting reservations coming in."

His excitement is shared by Debbie Hanlon, city councillor and lead of the city's cruise committee.

The city hopes to welcome 30 cruise ships with a total of about 37,000 passengers, excluding crew, during the 2022 season, which runs until mid October.

The city says it spends about $62,000 annually on the industry, which generated $10 million in spending by passengers, crew members and cruise lines in the province in 2019.

But cruise industry expert Ross Klein is wary of the numbers.

"They're not from anybody dealing with Newfoundland," he said.

"Based on research we've done, my guess is that maybe there's an average spending of about $40 to $50 per passenger on a good day."

For Hanlon, that's sufficient.

"If you get 40,000 people down spending $40 a day, we're doing OK," she said.

Breaking down $10 million into the different sectors it actually benefits is difficult, Hanlon added.

But, she says, the industry helps stores, restaurants and tour operators, as well as the port authority itself.

"That many people into your province and into your city would have an economic impact. It just makes common sense," she said.

Hanlon says the arrival of a cruise ship also generates business from locals who come to the downtown core to see the ships.

Quinlan agrees there is value for his business in having cruise ships arrive in St. John's, adding that this side of the business makes up the majority of his revenue.

"Last year, maybe 15 per cent of revenue came from the tour side, which, you know, was OK but is not a whole lot," he said.

"This year, we're expecting to go back to at least pre-pandemic sales and probably even surpass that."

Elsewhere in the country, the cruise season has already started — and it's seeing COVID-19 cases.

The Seven Seas Navigator arrived in Saint John, N.B., on Thursday with one COVID-19 positive crew member.

A Princess Cruises ship in the U.S. had several outbreaks in recent months.

But that's a risk St. John's is prepared for, said Melissa Williams, St. John's Port Authority harbour master.

Four days before a vessel enters Canadian water, she said, it has to disclose symptomatic and positive cases.

The threat of COVID-19 is evaluated based on four categories, the highest of which — the red level — indicates that 0.3 per cent or more of the people aboard are symptomatic or positive.

"Then Transport Canada would initiate a marine co-ordination call and on that line, for St. John's, would be the Port Authority, provincial health, the pilots, Transport Canada, anybody that was associated with getting this vessel into port safely. And the co-ordination call … will decide, can they bring the vessel in?" said Williams.

Should cruise ships be diverted, the impact would be "devastating" for local businesses that have prepared for cruise ship arrivals, said Klein.

"The restaurants get extra food, they bring in extra staff, they bring in extra buses.… They bring on extra tour guides to provide them and they find out an hour before they're supposed to have passengers come up, they're not going to be here," he said.

Hanlon agrees that cancellations would have an impact but says the exact scope would have to be determined later in the season.

She says there is not much the city can do to mitigate the risk of last-minute cancellations, whether it's due to COVID or the weather.

Quinlan knows that cancellations due to the weather are relatively common. For now, he is not too concerned about COVID-19 impacting the season.

"Who knows? You know, we're just hoping that things would work out," said Quinlan. "We remain optimistic."

Read more from CBC Newfoundland and Labrador