Cowan: The NDP’s dream is gone; their job now is to survive

It wasn't long ago the New Democrats in this province were surfing the orange wave. 

They were just two seats away from Official Opposition, they were briefly tied for first place in the polls in 2013, and the phrase “Premier Lorraine Michael” seemed like a distinct possibility.

Boy, has a lot changed.

With an election coming, gone are the aspirations of forming the government, even the dream of official opposition seems overly optimistic.

The NDP has lost MHAs and staff, and the party’s fall has fundamentally changed its role in the House of Assembly.

Never has that been more apparent than this week.

On Tuesday, the premier dropped his gloves in the fight with Ottawa over money for the fishery to take advantage of the free-trade deal.

Less than an hour after the announcement, Liberal Leader Dwight Ball leapt up in question period to ask the premier about it.  About half of the Liberals’ time was spent pulling apart details of the fisheries fund.

When Lorraine Michael's turn came, she got on feet her and asked about a new fiscal framework for municipalities.

The buzz in this province was over hundreds of millions of dollars of federal money that might not come, and the NDP didn't ask a single question about it.

A change of tack

That wasn't an accident. It was by design.

"We're going to use (question period) for ideas, not for flash," one staffer told me.

As the NDP caucus shrunk through defections, the resources for the party shrunk with it.

Out of the 30 minutes marked each day for question period, the NDP now only gets five. A year and a half ago, they had 12.

Instead of using that time to try and make headlines, they're pressing on the issues they see as important.

Even this spring the NDP would get in on the big story of the day. During the height of the Humber Valley Paving scandal, they pushed for the Auditor General to look into the fiasco, and they made it into the news coverage that was part of the province-wide political conversation.

They tried to show they were a broad-based party, taking on all the big issues, trying to prove they were ready to govern.

But not anymore.

Core issues

Instead of chasing popularity, they've decided to fight for their core issues, rooted in social justice, whether it gets them headlines or not.

Many of those who wanted to see the NDP move to centre, who saw government as the best way to advance that agenda, got fed up with Michael's leadership and left the party.

Based on this week's polling numbers, many voters abandoned them, too. Just one in 10 people say they would vote for the party.

Just because they're not get headlines doesn't mean they're not having an effect.

MHA Gerry Rogers has single-handily kept the family violence intervention court alive as an issue, forcing government to revisit the decision. 

The government's new whistleblower protection is something the NDP has wanted for years.

They even got their Auditor General's investigation into the Humber Valley Paving issue. (That campaign was launched by the NDP, not the Liberals.)

But their current approach isn't going to make them No. 1. in the polls again, and it is no strategy to form the next government.

The real test will be whether it's enough for them to hold on to their three remaining seats in the next election.