Ceasefire between Israel, Hamas could be first step in long-term resolution, MUN prof says

As millions around the world celebrate news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, a Newfoundland and Labrador associate professor hopes it can be the starting point on a path to long-term resolution in the region.

"I was always hopeful, but the signs [and] the winds were not shifting in that direction, it seemed, for a very long time," says Justin Fantauzzo, who studies military history in the modern middle east at Memorial University.

"The Palestinian situation on the ground really materially worsened and [is] no closer to statehood. So, there's been a lot of emotions — frustration, optimism, pessimism, sort of disbelief, as well. But I think everyone's quite content that we might be nearing the end of the most intense phase of this conflict."

The ceasefire could go into effect on Sunday, pausing the war in Gaza and releasing hostages on both sides. It comes after over a year of war that has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians.

However, on Thursday that deal was put into question as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a "last minute crisis" with Hamas was now holding up the approval of a Gaza truce and hostage deal.

The ceasefire is broken into three phases. The first will span six weeks, during which 33 Israeli hostages will be released, Israel will free a significant number of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli forces will withdraw from populated areas to allow for humanitarian aid.

"We don't yet know how many Palestinian political prisoners are going to go back the other way, but we do know that what's being reported is, for every Israeli hostage that's released, you can probably expect at least three to five Palestinians to be released," Fantauzzo said.

Talks of a ceasefire ramped up following the death of Hamas military leader Yahya Al-Sinwar in October. Fantauzzo called negotiations "a story of missed opportunities," saying a ceasefire could have been reached much earlier in the conflict.

"It's what everyone's obviously been hoping for," he said. "In many ways over the last 18 months, the two sides have been talking past each other."

The incoming presidency of Donald Trump likely also played a part in getting to a ceasefire now, Fantauzzo said, as the U.S. president-elect had promised "all hell [would] break out" if hostages weren't freed by his inauguration.

Fantauzzo said he believes there is a good possibility the resolution can be prolonged, but there are still factors that could change things — like how many prisoners are dead or alive.

He also hopes it can lead to the start of movement on negotiations in other conflicts in the region.

"What will be more interesting to see is, does this lead to any further negotiations on normalization amongst Israel and its neighbours in the region? Does this move the needle on Saudi-Israeli peace talks?" he said.

"Is this really the first step toward a larger kind of constellation of deals and negotiations to further integrate the region?"

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