Extreme heat wave likely set the 'personality' for the rest of summer

The recent "extreme" heat wave gave Hamiltonians seven straight days of temperatures above 30 C, the longest 30 C stretch in 13 years.

It didn't break any records, but the last time Hamilton saw that many consecutive hot days was back in 2005. 

All told, Hamilton has already had 12 days of temperatures above 30 C this year.

We think the flavour, the personality of the rest of the summer is going to continue as it is.- David Phillips, senior climatologist

But the city has a long way to go to beat the heat wave record set in 1955, when there were 33 days above 30 C.

Environment Canada has called the stretch of heat the most extreme heat event in the past few years, and says the "personality" of the summer that has been established by it is likely to stick around for the entire season.

That means expect more high temperatures mixed with high humidex values and a dearth of rainfall.

The last time Hamilton experienced a week-long stretch above 30 C was in 2005 from June 24 to June 30.

In comparison to last summer, it's like night and day, says Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips.

"It certainly has been warmer than normal by far, and it's certainly been when you compare it to last year."

The hottest month in Hamilton on record was in July 1999 with 18 days total of daytime temperatures exceeding 30 C. 

The longest period of daytime high of 30 C or above happened in 1973, August 26 to September 5. 

Environment Canada meteorologist Gerald Cheng told CBC News it's too early to determine if this summer's temperatures have historical significance because the meteorological summer finishes at the end of August.

It's almost as if it's forgotten how to rain in the Hamilton area.- David Phillips, senior climatologist

"It really has to do with individual episodes, individual events and the one at the end of June and into July, that was one that I think stuck out for most people because it lasted a week," said Cheng. 

Little rain

Not only have temperatures been higher, there's been significantly less rain. 

So far this month Hamilton has received just 2 mm of rain when normally there's about 55 to 60 mm in the month of July.

"I mean that is just incredible," said Phillips.

Toronto has already received 56 mm.

The climatologist says rain this year in the area is like a doughnut hole, meaning that there's rain around Hamilton, but not in the area — and it could be raining in parts of Hamilton, but not where observations are taken at the airport.

"It's almost as if it's forgotten how to rain in the Hamilton area," said Phillips.

"You need more precipitation, not less when you have these warm temperatures."

Phillips said last summer when it wasn't raining, it was looking like rain.

"People said it was like a bummer of a summer where maybe this one has been too warm and it's also been very dry."

What to expect from the next half

When it comes to the rest of the summer, the heat could continue, says the climatologist.

"Our models are suggesting that it very well could be warmer and dryer than normal in the last half of summer," said Phillips. "We think the flavour, the personality of the rest of the summer is going to continue as it is."

He says there's a thing in weather called persistence and what you see in what you're going to get. 

Phillips says there's nothing to suggest that it should turn around or change.

There seems to be a misconception about what to expect in the coming weeks, according to Phillips.

"A lot of people have said to me they're nervous about the rest of the summer because of the fact that they think that there's an allotment. You know, you have a certain number of just hot days and you've used them all up. Well it doesn't work that way. What we see is what we're going to get," said Phillips.

Another difference this summer, Phillips says, is that although the region has seen what is considered severe weather, with heavy rain, strong winds, lightening strikes and hailstorms, there hasn't been the amount you'd normally see.

"It's not been a rock and rolling kind of a summer."